Yesterday we saw some ‘Evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Monday 18th November 2024’.
1) In the days leading up to that point in time, the AEMO had issued, and updated, some forecast LOR1 and LOR2 warnings for QLD and NSW.
2) Whilst readers should remember that these types of forecasts are designed to elicit a market response (i.e. so the supply-demand balance may well end up less stretched than these forecasts are indicating), they do tend to be a useful leading indicator of times of potential sustained market volatility.
For that reason, worth flagging that the AEMO’s issued a forecast LOR2 warnings NSW for Monday next week, 25th November 2024 – in MN120652 as follows:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 19/11/2024 04:50:40
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Notice ID : 120652
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 19/11/2024
External Reference : STPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW Region on 25/11/2024
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the NSW region for the following period:
[1.] From 1530 hrs 25/11/2024 to 1930 hrs 25/11/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 730 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 93 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
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END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’
Here’s a very quick look, utilising the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view at 08:20 (NEM time) this morning looking at the NSW region:
Remember that this widget is useful for helping one ‘look up a vertical’ in order to ‘see that other dimension of time’
We can see, out to the end of the current ST PASA forecast data updates, the forecast LOR2 conditions aligned with forecasts for what would clearly be the highest* ‘Market Demand’ seen in this ~2 week window.
* note – still well below the all-time maximum, but (by comparison to neighbouring days) still higher risk.
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