The SMS alerts have been running for over an hour this evening (Monday 23rd September 2024), telegraphing a run of evening spot price volatility in South Australia. Here’s the 19:00 dispatch interval (NEM time) captured via NEMwatch to help provide some context:
Amongst the things we can see in the snapshot are:
1) With respect to spot prices, we see:
(a) In South Australia up up close to the Market Price Cap …with the first dispatch interval >$1,000/MWh being at 17:50;
(b) and risen off the negative prices that we’d seen through the day in all regions
2) ‘Market Demand’ in the green zone across most regions … slightly higher in Tasmania (in relative terms)
3) Large (but constrained) imports from VIC into SA helping to supply demand in the absence of wind production, and with solar gone to bed;
4) Leaving the remainder to supplied by gas-fired generation, some battery discharge, and some liquid fuelled units running.
In the ‘Market Notices’ window we can see a number of alerts relating to forecast LOR1 or LOR2 conditions for South Australia, which prompts me to add in this snapshot from the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view as at the 19:10 dispatch interval:
Remembering that we can use this widget to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to ‘see that other dimension of time’, we can see that:
1) Earlier in the AEMO forecast runs, they had been forecasting LOR2 conditions for South Australia this evening; and
2) Also we see current forecasts for LOR2 for tomorrow evening (Tuesday 24th September 2024). So, if today is any guide, we might see volatility tomorrow as well?
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