Potentially challenging lack of reserve conditions in NSW over 18 to 21 June 2024

Prompted by sequence of alerts about of lack of reserve market notices I delved in to the data to understand where and when using the LOR outlook for the NEM’s regions in ez2view.

The alerts were configured on market notices containing LOR, which were fed through to our messaging channel rather than the more commonly used SMS option:

The forecast convergence widget captures (at 15:40 on the 18th June) the state of LOR conditions. NSW is the region impacted.

LOR level 1 and 2 conditions are projected for multiple periods spanning the evenings and some mornings of the 18th, 19th, 20th and 21st of June in NSW.

We can clearly see couple of rough periods of LOR2 conditions projected for the coming days. AEMO is calling for a market response so they should hopefully not eventuate (and may even be alleviating as we read). Nonetheless it is indicative of a tight energy supply outlook at present.


The outlook for LOR conditions in NSW is looking rough.


Although taken earlier in the day (about midday, remains indicative for the afternoon at the time of writing), this screen-capture from Windy.com demonstrates how offshore wind could be useful in alleviating such low reserve conditions when onshore wind energy production is sub optimal.

The visualisation (source: Windy) shows orange patches of winds reaching upwards of 45 km/h, offshore from Wollongong. Inland regions appear to be experiencing speeds half that, at best. Take Crookwell where winds were assigned to the light-blue zone, about 15 km/h.

Yet our internal team messaging channel also noted, via ABC NEWS, there is opposition from the Opposition on offshore wind zones in New South Wales!

There’s something to consider.




About the Author

Linton Corbet
Linton joined Global-Roam as a software engineer and market analyst in August 2020. Prior to joining us, he worked with the AEMO for 7 years, and before that, as an air quality scientist.

Be the first to comment on "Potentially challenging lack of reserve conditions in NSW over 18 to 21 June 2024"

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published.