This morning we wrote the ‘Saturday morning wrap of forecast LOR conditions in NSW’, which spoke about forecast LOR1 or LOR2 conditions existing at the time for a number of coming days:
Saturday 18th May (i.e. today).
As I write this follow on, these conditions persist (though, of course, the specifics underlying them continue to change).
Extended outages at Eraring 2 and Vales Point 6
Two of the reasons* for the AEMO issuing the string of Market Notices overnight was changed outage intentions by Origin Energy (for Eraring Unit 2) and Delta Electricity (for Vales Point 6).
* note that it’s quite likely there are other reasons as well, but I have not checked at this time.
This we can see in the snapshot from the ‘Generator Outages’ widget in ez2view as at the 13:50 dispatch interval early on Saturday afternoon:
I’ve highlighted both of these units.
Eraring unit 2 now offline till Monday 27th May
Remember that Eraring unit 2 attempted to return to service on Thursday afternoon 16th May but hit a snag and came back offline Thursday evening.
1) At the time when I’d written that article (snapshot Friday 17th May at 07:45 via the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view) we had surmised that the unit might be out until Tuesday morning 21st May 2024
2) However using the MT PASA DUID Availability data now updated from tomorrow forwards, the expectation is that the unit won’t be back until Monday 27th May 2024.
Here’s a view of the past couple days of bidding for Eraring 2 in the ‘Bids & Offers’ widget in ez2view:
I’ve highlighted one particular rebid reason that speaks to ‘RTS delay due to oil fire – SL’, which sounds (at least to me) to be a bit cryptic, and where the ‘SL … i.e. see log’ instruction would really come in handy:
1) Is this describing some problem with oil firing in the boiler during the startup process?
2) Or was this describing some problem with an oil fire in some other part of the plant?
Vales Point 6 now offline till Thursday 23rd May
In this case, remember that VP6 tripped offline yesterday afternoon (Fri 17th May at ~14:20):
1) In that article we used a snapshot (at 17:10 via the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view) to speculate that the early expectation was that the unit would be back online by Monday morning 20th May.
2) However we see above now the expected return to service being sometime Thursday 23rd May 2024
Here’s a view of the past couple days of bidding for Vales Point 6 in the ‘Bids & Offers’ widget in ez2view:
There’s nothing really in the more recent rebid reasons to indicate what was the specific cause of the unit trip … but had speculated in the earlier article that it might be due to the PA Fan limitation.
Perhaps the generator has decided, now that the unit has tripped (possibly for other reasons) to get in and fix the PA Fan whilst it is offline (note this is entirely my speculation)?
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