AEMO forecasts impressive evening demand in QLD on Saturday 27th Jan 2024 (middle of a 3-day weekend)

A short (late morning) note with a snapshot from ez2view at 11:35 NEM time – using a collation of 3 x ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets in a window, all focused on different metrics pertaining to QLD over the coming days:

Briefly:

1)  AEMO is currently forecasting an impressive level of ‘Market Demand’ this evening:

(a)  up to ~10,350MW … depends on the specific forecast run

(b) which we can see in context to the absolutely massive ‘all time maximum’ experienced on Monday 22nd Jan 2024 (i.e. 11,036MW)

i.  which blew prior records out of the water.

ii.  so noting where ~10,350MW would sit in a historical context (i.e. up the top, save for higher points this summer 2023-24).

(c)  Though it’s worth noting it is a Saturday (and in the middle of a 3-day long weekend) … though it is stinking hot.

2)   ‘Looking up that vertical’, we can see that the AEMO has been consistent in forecasting an LOR2 low reserve condition for the QLD region this evening …

(a)  in part because of the high demand forecast

(b)  but no doubt also other factors (like constrained flows with NSW), coinciding with sunset, and perhaps other things … have not checked

3)  So no surprise the current P30 forecasts are seeing a run of price volatility over a number of hours.

What will actually unfold?