Looking forward, to Monday 22nd January 2024 in Queensland

I’ve noted in a couple recent articles (on Tuesday 16th and Thursday 18th) that the AEMO’s been forecasting a tight supply-demand balance (with a high level of ‘Market Demand’ in Queensland for Monday evening 22nd January 2024).

Friday morning at 08:16 they published MN113465 about a forecast LOR2 condition currently seen for Queensland on Monday 22nd January 2024:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     19/01/2024     08:16:01

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Notice ID               :         113465
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         19/01/2024
External Reference      :         STPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 22/01/2024

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following period:

From 1830 hrs to 1900 hrs 22/01/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 720 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 708 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

AEMO Operations

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END OF REPORT
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So useful to add in this snapshot from ez2view (a mashup of 3 copies of the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget focused on three different QLD-focused metrics as at 09:50 today, but extended out to the ST PASA time horizon):

With reference to the numbered annotations:

1)  Looking back at yesterday’s ‘Market Demand’ and ‘looking up a vertical’, we see that the demand forecast was initially high (when in the ST PASA look-ahead), then cooled somewhat before warming again to the point of what actually unfolded

… again reinforcing the vagaries of the weather, and hence the challenges with forecasting these types of metrics.

2)  Looking at ‘Market Demand’ forecast for this evening, we see that the forecast (now accessing P30 predispatch) has cooled somewhat compared to earlier

… but what will actually unfold?

3)  Looking forward to the  ‘Market Demand’ forecast for Monday 22nd January 2024, it’s clearly the ‘hottest’ forecast in the grid, and (looking at the red-ness) currently the forecasts are getting hotter:

(a)  Last night when I wrote this on Tuesday, the forecast for Monday evening was that it might reach ~9,500MW (only included a chart, did not write the number down);

(b)  Last night when I wrote this the forecast was that this might reach 10,372 MW;

(c)  As it stands, (i.e. in the ST PASA run for 09:00 today) the forecast is that it might reach 10,752MW.

… which would easily be a new all-time maximum

…  no wonder the colours are getting redder!

4)  Coincident with this ‘hotting up of demand forecast’ we see that the progressive forecasts of Available Generation are getting more blue …

… which, with this metric, means the numbers are getting bigger (which is a good thing)

5)  A combination of both (plus AEMO’s forecasts of interconnector capability, not shown here), leads to the emergence of the forecast LOR2 condition for QLD on Monday evening.

Stay tuned for more…