Demand (and price) spiking in QLD on Thursday afternoon 18th Jan 2024

This morning we posted ‘A preview of Thursday evening 18th Jan 2024 in Queensland … and also flagging Fri 19th and Mon 22nd’.

We’ve just ticked into the 15:25 dispatch interval, and it’s worth sharing this snapshot from NEMwatch:

With respect to the numbered notes on the image:

1)  ‘Market Demand’ is already up at 9,307MW in this dispatch interval:

(a)  So up in the orange zone set by the historical range

(b)  With reference to the all-time record, which currently sits at 10,119MW … set for the dispatch interval ending 17:30 on Tuesday 8th March 2022).

2)  Price has started to climb this afternoon … now up to $555.03/MWh

3)  Worth noting that QNI is heavily constrained

… indeed we see the import limit (which would normally set the maximum limit flowing north) is such that QNI in this instance must flow south.

4)  And we highlight the IRPM of the QLD-only ‘Economic Island’ is down in the red zone, at 11%

(a)  net ‘Market Demand’ of 9,487 MW … higher because of the forced exports

(b)  Being supplied by 10,497 MW of Available Generation in QLD

(c)  Meaning a local surplus of only 1,010 MW

(d)  Or a 11% margin.

Adding in here, here’s a snapshot from 15:35 in ez2view (i.e. 10 minutes later than the NEMwatch snapshot above):

(a)  the same collage of 3 x ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets shown this morning

(b)  just flipped to look at the P5 predispatch prices, given we’re nearer to crunch time.

Remember that this widget allows one to ‘look up a vertical’ to see ‘that other dimension of time’.

In this case we can see…

5)  The spot price has spiked above $10,000/MWh for the first time.

6)  Forecasts (out to the right) are, in this run, moderated a little – but still way beyond the knee point of the bid stack, so quite sensitive to small changes of supply or demand

7)  Available Generation in the 15:35 was much lower than forecast 55 minutes ago

… consistently dropping when we look up a vertical

8)  Actual level of ‘Market Demand’ is higher than forecast 55 minutes ago

9)  And looking out 55 minutes, AEMO’s P5 predispatch is suggesting it might get as high as >9,900MW

Stay tuned for more …