Late ‘summer’ hot blast drives demand higher in NSW and QLD

A quick article at the end of the day, Thursday 16th March 2023 with a snapshot from NEMwatch at 16:45 to highlight a couple things:

With respect to the numbering:

1) Hot and dry temperatures in Sydney (and hot and humid temperature in Brisbane) are providing an early autumn summer-like blast;

2) This is driving ‘Market Demand’ for QLD and NSW out of the green zone:

(a) NSW at 12,130MW

(b) QLD at 9,463MW higher on a relative scale;

3) Spot prices are starting their late afternoon climb

4) As Underlying Demand remains high but rooftop PV starts to wind down for the day (with Large Solar, assisted by better technology discussed by Dan here, lasting a little bit longer into the late afternoon).

5) The situation in NSW and QLD is not helped by no ability to import from Victoria.

… note that this is due to the ‘N>>NIL_39_11’ constraint equation, not the reworked ‘x5 constraint’.

6) Meaning that at this time:

(a) There is a NSW-only ‘Economic Island’ formed, by virtue of constrained flows both with VIC and with QLD;

(b) This Economic Island has IRPM down in the red zone;

7) And AEMO formally noting an Actual LOR1-level low reserve condition.

That’s all for now…