Believe it or not, I should be focused on other things (like finishing off GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q4 2022, with one client Executive Briefing arranged for Monday next week) … but the questions about what might happen in QLD this afternoon and evening are proving a big distraction. So here’s a quick look this morning using ez2view at the 05:55 dispatch interval…
The first snapshot shows three different ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets lined up side-by-side, looking at different P30 predispatch data sets to get a look at what AEMO is currently forecasting might happen this evening (in earlier articles these widgets were looking into STPASA, with Friday further away at the time):
Quick notes:
1) Aligned with forecasts from several days ago, the AEMO P30 predispatch forecasts for ‘Market Demand’ are that it will be very high…
…. indeed, if this holds true, it will be well past the previous all-time record from 8th March 2022.
2) ‘Looking up the vertical’ to see ‘that other dimension of time’ with respect to Available Generation, we see that the forecast has been improving slightly over that time range (i.e. becoming more blue … higher numbers)
3) In the third widget we see consistent forecasts for LOR2 Low Reserve Condition this evening.
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Wrapping this all together, a quick sense is that supply and demand will be tight this evening:
1) Which means prices are likely to be elevated for a number of hours;
2) But, all going well (i.e. unless something trips off, or so on) there should be enough supply to meet expected demand (albeit with only a *small* margin spare).
Here’s the second window from ez2view showing the QLD schematic, to enable the reader to understand what was operational at this point in time:
The plant mix is largely the same as was expected back on Tuesday afternoon when I wrote this article:
1) Still the four coal units off:
(a) Callide C3 and C4, along with Callide B2 and Gladstone 1.
(b) but they were not expected to be back on by today anyway.
2) The two big gas-fired units (Darling Downs and Swanbank E) are both operating at present … as noted Tuesday, they will likely switch off during the day and return for evening peak (along with other gas-fired units).
Oh, it’s worth also adding in the AEMO’s latest Market Notice (MN105544 published 00:28 this morning) about the Forecast LOR2 condition:
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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 03/02/2023 00:28:54
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Notice ID : 105544
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 03/02/2023
External Reference : PDPASA – Update – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 03/02/2023
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
The Forecast LOR2 condition in the Qld region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 105540 has been updated at 0030 hrs 03/02/2023 to the following:
[1.] From 1700 hrs 03/02/2023 to 2030 hrs 03/02/2023.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 525 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 282 MW.
[2.] From 2100 hrs 03/02/2023 to 2130 hrs 03/02/2023.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 525 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 468 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO estimates the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event is 1430 hrs on 03/02/2023.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
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END OF REPORT
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[Note the AEMO reference to possible intervention in the market … what they might choose to do, for instance, is activate Reserve Trader (and it did not take long this morning for AEMO to initiate that process)].
Watch this space…
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