This is an update on this earlier article from around midday, referencing AEMO’s updates just after 11am.
Also, thanks to those who have contacted us after publication to let us know we missed some LOR3 forecasts for SA and TAS… will add them in and update as soon as we are able!
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The table below represents the what’s current in the way of AEMO’s forecast LOR3 (i.e. controlled load shedding) instances for today.
(A) Caveat
With respect to these updates (it seems there will be a few of them, unfortunately) it’s worth readers keeping the following two sides of the coin in mind …
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On the one side… |
On the other side … |
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In relation to my 1st update on Tuesday 14th June, Allan O’Neil wrote this comment on LinkedIn which I thought useful to copy in here: We have to put some context around “load forecast to be shed” in these extraordinary circumstances. A number of participants are not offering their supply to the market, possibly because they don’t think compensation arrangements for running under the administered price cap would be financially satisfactory. In some ways it would be better if AEMO could preface its statements with “Due to xxx MW of supply which is technically available but not being offered into the market …” Worth reading the other comments on that LinkedIn thread. |
In response to the same article on Twitter here, one reader had added this: Even if things rectify themselves* like yesterday, the system is still tight and assumes nothing else goes wrong On Monday 13th I wrote about ‘Desperate times call for desperate measures’ in relation to constraints being violated (and the NEM in a less secure state than AEMO would desire) because of these types of dynamics. I’ve not had time to look, but would not be surprised to see that this type of thing has happened on other occasions since. We need to keep in mind that there is (underlying the cost + Price Cap dilemmas) we are also faced with a supply-demand balance that’s not flushed with oodles of surplus capacity at present. |
It’s useful to keep both perspectives in mind at the same time … as this glass is both half full and half empty (with the risk of smashing on the floor).
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Also worth keeping in mind this reminder from the AER about generator compliance obligations.
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With that in mind, let’s look further…
(B) The status for each of the mainland regions
Given all four mainland regions are under Administered Pricing, I have provided space to include details for each – though forecast LOR3 has not (yet?!) been seen for SA. When the wind next drops we’ll see what ensues…
Assuming I’ve not missed anything, or transcribed incorrectly, here’s the most recent forecasts:
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QLD Region |
NSW Region |
VIC Region |
SA Region |
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Yesterday (Monday 13th June) there were several updates on the forecast for QLD … but nothing eventuated (as AEMO noted here). |
Yesterday (Monday 13th June) there were several updates on the forecast for NSW … but nothing eventuated (as AEMO noted here). |
Nothing was relevant for VIC yesterday |
Nothing was relevant for SA yesterday |
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Tue 14th at 13:18 we’ve seen Market Notice 97277 published for QLD today (Tuesday 14th June). The key points are: ‘from 16:30 to 24:00’ ‘maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 1537MW at 18:30’ That’s a significant drop on this morning’s update.
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Today (Tuesday 14th June) we’ve seen Market Notice 97295 published at 14:32 as the most recent for the NSW region. The key points for today are: ‘from 17:00 to 24:00’ ‘maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 1748MW at 21:00’ That’s a slight increase on this morning’s update. |
Today (Tuesday 14th June) we’ve seen Market Notice 97302 published at 14:55 as the most recent for the VIC region. This was an update on MN 97284 at HH:mm today. The key points are: ‘from 18:00 to 19:30’ ‘maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 218MW at 18:30’ No further comments. |
No such warnings for SA at this point. |
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Tue 14th at 13:18 we’ve seen Market Notice 97277 published as the most recent for the QLD region pertaining to Wednesday 15th June. The key points are: ‘from 07:00 to 08:00’ ‘maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 327MW at 07:00’ and ‘from 17:00 to 22:30’ ‘maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 1,017MW at 17:30’ Nothing further to add. |
Tue 14th at 14:13 we’ve seen Market Notice 97295 published as the most recent for the NSW region pertaining to Wednesday 15th June. The key points are: ‘from 07:00 to 08:30’ ‘maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 402MW at 07:00’ … plus … ‘from 09:30 to 11:30’ ‘maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 768MW at 10:00’ … plus … ‘from 14:30 to 16:30’ ‘maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 577MW at 15:30’ … plus … ‘from 17:30 to 04:00 Friday’ ‘maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 3,166MW at 20:00’ Wow, the 3,166MW is an enormous number … but remember the caveats above. |
Tue 14th at 13:36 we’ve seen Market Notice 97284 published for the VIC region pertaining to Wednesday 15th June. This is the most current, with key points are: ‘from 18:30 to 19:30’ ‘maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 72MW at 18:30’ No further comments. |
Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for SA tomorrow (Wednesday 15th June) |
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Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for QLD Thursday 16th June |
See Market Notice 97295 above for how it’s forecast to potentially spill over into Thursday 16th June till 04:00. |
Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for VIC Thursday 16th June |
Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for SA Thursday 16th June |
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Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for QLD Friday 17th June |
Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for NSW Friday 17th June |
Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for VIC Friday 17th June |
Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for SA Friday 17th June |
Hold onto your hats this evening, and for the next few days…
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