Just after 13:00 today, the AEMO published two market notices that spelt AEMO’s update on this view of the likelihood of load shedding being required this evening:
QLD Region
… for Tuesday 14th June 2022 (morning and evening).
NSW Region
… for this evening Monday 13th June 2022
——————————————————————- MARKET NOTICE ——————————————————————-From : AEMO To : NEMITWEB1 Creation Date : 13/06/2022 13:02:44——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 97067 Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3 Issue Date : 13/06/2022 External Reference : PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the QLD Region on 14/06/2022
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR3 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following periods:
[1.] From 0700 hrs to 0730 hrs 14/06/2022. The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 171 MW at 0700 hrs.
[2.] From 1730 hrs to 2030 hrs 14/06/2022. The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 653 MW at 1900 hrs.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
——————————————————————- END OF REPORT ——————————————————————-
——————————————————————- MARKET NOTICE ——————————————————————-From : AEMO To : NEMITWEB1 Creation Date : 13/06/2022 13:03:29——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 97069 Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3 Issue Date : 13/06/2022 External Reference : PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the NSW Region on 14/06/2022
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR3 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the NSW region for the following period:
From 1800 hrs to 2030 hrs 14/06/2022. The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 409 MW at 1900 hrs.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
——————————————————————- END OF REPORT ——————————————————————-
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients.
Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.
It was a hot and sweaty walk home from the Brisbane office late this afternoon, accompanied by the incessant buzzing of my phone … due to the run of volatility in NSW and QLD we forecast in this morning’s article.
A quick snapshot of some volatility in Contingency Raise FCAS Prices in QLD spanning Wednesday 9th October 2024, Thursday 10th October 2024, Friday 11th October 2024.
2 Commentson "Forecast LOR3 (load shedding) now spans NSW for Monday evening, 13th June … and QLD tomorrow (morning/evening) as well"
RERT now in QLD too.
tomorrow morning and evening? 14th?