Yesterday evening I posted about the forecast for LOR2 Low Reserve Condition in both QLD and NSW for tomorrow – Thursday 2nd June (particularly in the evening) – due to a confluence of events. This is a brief update on two fronts:
(A) Notification of Potential Gas Supply Shortfall Event
Firstly, I’d draw your attention to Market Notice 96727 published today at 15:46 as follows:
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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 01/06/2022 15:46:06
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Notice ID : 96727
Notice Type ID : GENERAL NOTICE
Notice Type Description : Subjects not covered in specific notices
Issue Date : 01/06/2022
External Reference : Notification of a Potential Gas Supply Shortfall Event
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Reason :
Notification of a Potential Gas Supply Shortfall Event
AEMO has a potential gas supply shortfall event for the VIC, SA, TAS regions for GD 02/06/22.
AEMO will convene a gas supply guarantee assessment conference with contacts that AEMO determines will be able to contribute or response to the potential gas supply shortfall to assess the event.
The event notice can be found here: http://nemweb.com.au/Reports/Current/Gas_Supply_Guarantee/
Manager NEM RTO
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END OF REPORT
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This is the first of these types of Market Notices I can ever remember seeing!
Given the cold weather being experienced across southern Australia, and a reminder that gas is used both:
1) Directly:
(a) With particular interest in domestic heating in Victoria tomorrow (which I presume would be at heightened demand due to the cold temperatures), but also
(b) In commercial and industrial applications (which I presume might be expected to be much the same as any other working day).
2) Indirectly, in gas-fired generation … which looks set to be called on to produce more, particularly in the evening periods with:
(a) Earlier sunset in winter, so:
i. Earlier lighting requirement; and
ii. Earlier sunset of solar PV generation (both rooftop and Large Solar).
(b) And also increased electricity consumption due to increased demand for electrified heating (both the old style inefficient radiant types and the more efficient reverse cycle air-conditioning and heat pumps).
(B) Changed focus of LOR2 level shortage forecasts
With the above in mind, it’s worth highlighting that the following has happened through today (with respect to yesterday’s 2-day-ahead LOR2 forecasts for QLD and NSW tomorrow):
| QLD Region | NSW Region | VIC Region | SA Region | TAS Region |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
As noted Tuesday evening, Market Notice 96687 (published 16:43 Tuesday) showed the minimum capacity reserve was forecast to be only 169MW for the QLD region Thursday evening. |
As noted Tuesday evening, Market Notice 96686 (published 16:42 Tuesday) showed the minimum capacity reserve was forecast to be only 169MW for the NSW region Thursday evening. |
Yesterday evening all looked ok for VIC |
Yesterday evening all looked ok for SA |
Yesterday evening all looked ok for TAS |
|
This warning was: (a) Updated with Market Notice 96705 in the morning, and then (b) Cancelled for QLD with Market Notice 96709 published 12:50:38 today (Wednesday 1st June). (c) Even the LOR1 condition forecast was cancelled with Market Notice 96721 published at 15:08 |
This warning was cancelled with Market Notice 96719 published at 15:10:31 |
At 12:56 Market Notice 96710 was published warning of forecast LOR2 in the SA region in the morning tomorrow … with minimum capacity reserve available of only 118MW. However this forecast was cancelled in Market Notice 96714 published at 14:24. |
At 12:58 Market Notice 96711 was published warning of forecast LOR2 in the SA region in the morning tomorrow … with minimum capacity reserve available of only 118MW. However this forecast was cancelled in Market Notice 96715 published at 14:25. |
At 13:04 Market Notice 96712 was published warning of forecast LOR2 in the TAS region in the morning tomorrow … with minimum capacity reserve available of only 118MW. However this forecast was cancelled in Market Notice 96716 published at 14:26. |
I’ve not looked into what caused the sudden declaration of LOR2 risk, or the fast resolution of that issue.
However I did open up this same pre-prepared trend widget from ez2view online that I referred to yesterday to see what the updated NEM-wide prognosis was in terms of supply and demand:
The point of most interest (around 19:00 tomorrow evening) is still clearly visible.
(C) What will unfold?
What will actually happen on the day tomorrow … particularly tomorrow evening?
1) It looks likely to be even tighter than this evening (where IRPM has already dropped below 15% yellow alert level).
2) Remember you should be able to watch this live on this Dashboard as it unfolds.
Challenging times ahead … through winter 2022, but then also out into the future as this energy transition rolls forward…
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