Evening LOR2 in the QLD region – and early ‘summer’ evening

A quick note this evening (Thursday 28th October 2021) with a snapshot from NEMwatch v10.2 at 18:45 dispatch/trading interval (NEM time) with a couple things highlighted:

With reference to the numbers on the image:

1)  The Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin indicator for the QLD ‘Economic Island’ shows an IRPM down at 7% with (net) available generation capacity in the island (8,577MW) just 558MW greater than the (net) local Market Demand in the economic island (8,019MW).

2)  Little wonder that AEMO has issued an ‘Actual LOR2’ Low Reserve Condition notice at 18:19:22 in Market Notice 92012:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     28/10/2021     18:19:22

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Notice ID               :         92012
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         28/10/2021
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 28/10/2021

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD region – 28/10/2021

An Actual LOR2 condition has been declared under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region from 1800 hrs.

The Actual LOR2 condition is forecast to exist until 1900 hrs.

The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 551 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 440 MW.

AEMO is seeking an immediate market response.

An insufficient market response may require AEMO to implement an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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3)  With the tight supply/demand balance, little wonder that the dispatch price in QLD is elevated … just below $1,000/MWh (a specific price point I don’t recall seeing all too often).

4)  With the steamy weather conditions (first early blast of a ‘summer’ style evening ramp in demand with temperature in South-East QLD below 30°C, but humidity above 70% prompting residential air-conditioning use) we see evening Scheduled Demand  in QLD up in the yellow zone on the sliding scale compared with historical range.

5)  At this time of the day, the large solar contribution from earlier in the day (almost 4,500MW combined between Large Solar and the AEMO’s estimate for Small Solar – remembering that Medium Solar is the invisible man) has disappeared.

6)  Earlier this afternoon (metered at 16:45) we see the effect of the trip of the STAN-3 coal unit from 364MW, reducing available supply.

7)  Also contributing to the tight supply-demand balance is the constrained imports from NSW as a result of the ‘N^^Q_NIL_B1’ constraint equation (i.e. one of the ‘Kogan constraints’).