A short article (that’s taken a couple hours to publish, in between other work) prompted by the evacuation orders re-issued for Traralgon in the Latrobe Valley this afternoon:
The reports we’ve seen online are not pretty pictures.
(A) A current view of the market today
… and we wonder* (being in the Latrobe Valley, and with prior experiences with wet coal and flooding at the Latrobe Valley stations) what the impact will be on generation from Yallourn Power Station, and Loy Yang A and Loy Yang B power stations.
* to be clear, this is speculation on our part, at this point!
Here’s how they look in a view from a pre-release version of ez2view version 9** – snapshot at 14:35:
As noted on the image, we see that (both in the EnergyAustralia portfolio) Yallourn has been ramped down, whilst at the same time output from Newport (gas-fired, inside of Melbourne) has ramped up. We wonder about the extent to which this is related to the wet weather event.
We also see that there are elevated prices currently forecast for VIC this evening… but using the Forecast Convergence widget, we see that there’s really been not much change in these forecasts for a number of hours to this point (snapshot for 16:00):
From this we can see a ~500MW drop in Available Generation in the VIC region in between the run for 13:00 this afternoon and the run for 13:30 this afternoon.
(B) ** A quick note about ez2view version 9
In the image above, the prices table widget is now named as a ‘pre 5MS’ version … because this will change significantly for 5MS. That work is done (incorporating consideration of Potential Tripwire number 1), but there are a number of other things we’re completing to address these changes.
PS1 at 16:25 on Friday 11th June
… no soon as I’d noted about this article on LinkedIn this afternoon that I see Josh Stabler, from EnergyEdge, also asking the same types of questions. You might find comments on either thread there on LinkedIn of interest…