Yesterday saw scheduled demand rise above 33,000 MW. Dispatch prices went into the thousands with Victoria and Tasmania maxing out at $14,500/MWh and South Australia at $13,104.67/MWh. These NEM-Watch screenshots capture the event unfolding. At 16:50 (the 4th image) the bar charts show low IRPM (instantaneous reserve plant margin) for the economic islands.
13:55 on 22 Jan 2019 Nem-Watch Screenshot
14:55 on 22 Jan 2019 Nem-Watch Screenshot
15:45 on 22 Jan 2019 Nem-Watch Screenshot
16:50 on 22 Jan 2019 Nem-Watch Screenshot
17:00 on 22 Jan 2019 Nem-Watch Screenshot
As the ‘gap’ between power demand on the one hand, and the some 20GW of power still available from coal, plus solar plus wind power on the other, increases above 5,000 MW, on the east coast, large peaks of gas and hydro output are called on for the difference. Given gas/ hydro have little competition in responding to these peak demand situations, these sources will continue to charge very high prices at such times. Whether the market actually goes crazy or not seems more a function of market characteristics.
New solar power capacity, presently being rolled out, should reduce such high price occasions, during daylight, if the network is up to it. But the naturally high incidence of 5% to 25% wind load factor occasions, will ensure high price periods will continue to occur often, when power demand is high. These occasions will increase too, as coal power capacity is driven out of the market and the ‘gap’ to be filled by gas/hydro, is thereby increased at low wind times.
Storage may become a solution if the increasing cost of grid power is seen as of little consequence.
Being retired and from the “old school” where things were centrally controlled I am endlessly amazed at the discussion about the complexities that go with this market system. If the control were under one roof and basically up to one person supplied with all they need to be told about the weather how simple thing could be. A list of serviceable plant. Forward planning not much different to a steam engine driver about to go up a hill and getting as much pressure ready as needed. Not rocket science. Now with forward trading – derivatives – no useful integration – AEMO only now seeming to realize that they need to take some form of control there are complexities that are simply created by the design which is not fit for purpose. Thank goodness I don’t have to work with something that I could never believe made sense. You guys have my total sympathy keeping a straight face as you seem to do, or may be being too young to know that it need not be like this. Ever done some work on a washing machine or the car at the weekend and wanting to meet the idiot that made something hard to do. Who was the …. that made it like this?