Analytical Challenge – determining “what might have otherwise been?”

Posted by Paul McArdleFriday 15th September 2017  3:55 PM   Topic: A collection of some core analytical challenges

Don’t have time to post more about this one today, but want to flag this as a place holder such that I can refer to it more directly from time to time – like with respect to the linked posts I’ll progressively add in here:

Prior to Sept 2017 There have been posts made in the past that reference this Analytical challenge.

When I have time to dig them up, I’ll link them in here for your reference – to highlight the diversity of when analysts need to be conscious of “what might have otherwise been”.
Mon 4th Sept 2017 Following some claims made in the SMH that pointedly implied that the establishment of the market was the root cause of the (much more recent) escalation in wholesale prices in the NEM, I posted this rebuttal (and I again apologise for the colourful language that’s still doing the rounds on social media).

These sort of arguments inevitably include a strong element of “what would otherwise have been” if [INSERT KEY CHANGE PROPONENT DOES NOT LIKE] had not happened.

In that particular case (in my view), the writer from the ETU disliked the establishment of the market but drew a very long bow to link it to much more recent escalation of prices that have arisen for other reasons.
Fri 15th Sept 2017 In this post published at the end of an 8-week sample period, I tried to estimate the volume of energy curtailed by AEMO as a result of the binding of the “S_WIND_1200_AUTO” constraint equation.

In doing this, I obviously needed to try to try to
After Sept 2017 When I remember, I will also try to link them in here…

 

Of course, if you want to start the ball rolling (even before content is provided here) feel free to add your comments below….

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About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

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