Don’t have time to post more about this one today, but want to flag this as a place holder such that I can refer to it more directly from time to time – like with respect to the linked posts I’ll progressively add in here:
Prior to Sept 2017
There have been posts made in the past that reference this Analytical challenge.
When I have time to dig them up, I’ll link them in here for your reference – to highlight the diversity of when analysts need to be conscious of “what might have otherwise been”.
Mon 4th Sept 2017
Following some claims made in the SMH that pointedly implied that the establishment of the market was the root cause of the (much more recent) escalation in wholesale prices in the NEM, I posted this rebuttal (and I again apologise for the colourful language that’s still doing the rounds on social media).
These sort of arguments inevitably include a strong element of “what would otherwise have been” if [INSERT KEY CHANGE PROPONENT DOES NOT LIKE] had not happened.
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients.
Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.
With the AER having released its ‘Wholesale Markets Quarterly’ for Q2 2022 yesterday, I skimmed and saw 9 discrete factors flagged … each of which contributed to the extreme (price and scarcity) outcomes seen through Q2 2022.
In the same week that the Energy Security Board publishes it’s ‘The Health of the NEM’ reports, looking from a top-down systems perspective, we crank the handle to produce the ‘Generator Statistical Digest 2020’ as a bottom-up 10-year review of the performance of all Scheduled, Semi-Scheduled and some Non-Scheduled generators and scheduled loads across the NEM that operated through some part of 2020.
In conjunction with the analysis done to complete GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023 (released today), here’s 14 years of daily data of ‘Aggregate Scheduled Target’ that might help to illustrate the aggregate requirement for fully dispatchable capacity of some type as the closure of coal accelerates into the future.
Yesterday (Tue 6th Sept 2022) the AER released its ‘Wholesale Markets Quarterly’ report for Q2 2022 – which, given the Energy Crisis that unfolded then, should prove interesting reading.
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