Mothballing logic, and reason?
Recent events in the NEM are causing me to wonder whether we’ve suspended logic, and reason, in charting a workable course through this energy transition?
Read MoreA collection of some core analytical challenges
Analytical challenge – recognising the separate components in Risk, and their influence
A simple refresher on two core components that combine in order to define risk – probability and consequence.
Do you know of people who can help us?
Readers at WattClarity might recall that we have asked the question above a couple of times in recent weeks – and a big thanks to those who responded already! We’re…
Analytical Challenge – In a complex system like the NEM, it’s almost always numerous factors/changes that combine to produce an outcome
All too often people (including us sometimes, unfortunately) are quick to attribute some particular outcome to a single contributing factor. Almost always this is an over-simplification.
Analytical Challenge – remembering that it’s impossible to know motive (but does not stop us guessing)
Highlighting the temptation to ascribe motivation to others – despite the fact that we understand that we can never know for sure.
Analytical Challenge – avoiding Recency Bias
Flagging the ongoing challenge of not extrapolating from recent performance to infer that “things” will always be that way.
Analytical Challenge – determining “what might have otherwise been?”
One of the challenges in analysis is to even be conscious of the need to ascertain “what might have otherwise been”.
Analytical Challenge – keeping an open mind to positions expressed by a broad range of people
“Incumbency” seems to have become a pejorative in the NEM
Forecasting is a Mug’s Game
The three main flaws that put boundaries on the usefulness of all forecasting/modelling
A model’s just a model – it’s not reality (though some models might be useful)
Models are simplifications of reality. Some are more precise than others. Some are useful for different purposes.