Analytical challenge – recognising the separate components in Risk, and their influence
A simple refresher on two core components that combine in order to define risk – probability and consequence.
Read MoreA collection of some core analytical challenges
Do you know of people who can help us?
Readers at WattClarity might recall that we have asked the question above a couple of times in recent weeks – and a big thanks to those who responded already! We’re…
Analytical Challenge – In a complex system like the NEM, it’s almost always numerous factors/changes that combine to produce an outcome
All too often people (including us sometimes, unfortunately) are quick to attribute some particular outcome to a single contributing factor. Almost always this is an over-simplification.
Analytical Challenge – remembering that it’s impossible to know motive (but does not stop us guessing)
Highlighting the temptation to ascribe motivation to others – despite the fact that we understand that we can never know for sure.
Analytical Challenge – avoiding Recency Bias
Flagging the ongoing challenge of not extrapolating from recent performance to infer that “things” will always be that way.
Analytical Challenge – determining “what might have otherwise been?”
One of the challenges in analysis is to even be conscious of the need to ascertain “what might have otherwise been”.
Analytical Challenge – keeping an open mind to positions expressed by a broad range of people
“Incumbency” seems to have become a pejorative in the NEM
Forecasting is a Mug’s Game
The three main flaws that put boundaries on the usefulness of all forecasting/modelling
A model’s just a model – it’s not reality (though some models might be useful)
Models are simplifications of reality. Some are more precise than others. Some are useful for different purposes.