Recent events in the NEM are causing me to wonder whether we’ve suspended logic, and reason, in charting a workable course through this energy transition?Read More
A collection of some core analytical challenges
A simple refresher on two core components that combine in order to define risk – probability and consequence.
Readers at WattClarity might recall that we have asked the question above a couple of times in recent weeks – and a big thanks to those who responded already! We’re…
Analytical Challenge – In a complex system like the NEM, it’s almost always numerous factors/changes that combine to produce an outcome
All too often people (including us sometimes, unfortunately) are quick to attribute some particular outcome to a single contributing factor. Almost always this is an over-simplification.
Analytical Challenge – remembering that it’s impossible to know motive (but does not stop us guessing)
Highlighting the temptation to ascribe motivation to others – despite the fact that we understand that we can never know for sure.
Flagging the ongoing challenge of not extrapolating from recent performance to infer that “things” will always be that way.
One of the challenges in analysis is to even be conscious of the need to ascertain “what might have otherwise been”.
“Incumbency” seems to have become a pejorative in the NEM
The three main flaws that put boundaries on the usefulness of all forecasting/modelling
Models are simplifications of reality. Some are more precise than others. Some are useful for different purposes.