Following the 2025 ESOO, MT PASA shows forecast Low Reserve Conditions in the South Australian region (Dec 2026 to March 2027)

Following from the release of the 2025 ESOO last Thursday, it was not a surprise that there were changes to outcomes in the subsequent weekly MT PASA run.

As a result of this, on Tuesday 26th August 2025 we saw Market Notice 128692 published at 14:54 as follows:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     26/08/2025     14:54:49

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Notice ID               :         128692
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         26/08/2025
External Reference      :         RESERVE NOTICE MT PASA 26 August 2025

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Reason :

The MTPASA result published on 26 August 2025 identifies annual unserved energy exceeds the Reliability Standard between:
— August 2026 – August 2027 in South Australia.

AEMO declares Low Reserve Conditions in accordance with clause 4.8.4 of the National Electricity Rules for the following region(s) and periods:
— December 2026 – March 2027 in South Australia when forecast demand exceeds supply under some circumstances.

This MTPASA result reflects numerous updates to inputs and assumptions aligning with the 2025 Electricity Statement of Opportunities published 21 August 2025.
This includes updates to unplanned outages rates, demand forecasts, solar and wind traces and commissioning assumptions for new generation and storage projects.

MTPASA informs the market of potential reliability issues to allow the market to respond in the first instance, potentially avoiding the need for any AEMO intervention.

For further information on MT PASA, please refer to:
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data/Market-Management-System-MMS/Projected-Assessment-of-System-Adequacy.

For more information about how AEMO implements the reliability standard, please view the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG) available at https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/reliability-standard-implementation-guidelines

This notice supersedes Market Notice 128563 published on 19 August 2025.

Forecasting

AEMO

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END OF REPORT
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Some time ranges to keep an eye on…