So where does NSW peak demand on Thu 29th Feb 2024 sit in historical context?

Thu 29th Feb 2024

We noted at the time that ‘NSW Market demand peaks at 13,764MW‘ .

This occurred in the 16:35 dispatch interval.

As we can see in the chart above, this is the highest point seen since 31st Jan 2019 (i.e. 5 years and 1 month earlier)

Using the AEMO’s published ‘Operational Demand’ date series (published on a 30 minute cadence) the high point for this day was 13,643MW in the half hour ending 17:00.

This was not an all-time record.

We noted at the time that ‘NSW Underlying Demand peaks at 15,100MW at 15:00 (NEM time) on Thu 29th Feb 2024′.

Sat 1st Feb 2020

On the day after, we posted ‘Out of the blue, another LOR2’ with respect to a stressful day in NSW.

Highest point on the day was 13,717MW at 16:55 NEM time.

Using the AEMO’s published ‘Operational Demand’ date series (published on a 30 minute cadence) the high point for this day was 13,835MW.

Using the identical logic* to calculate ‘Underlying Demand’ as used for Thu 29th Feb 2024, I’ve wound the clock back at posted ‘Derivation of Underlying Demand in NSW on 30th and 31st January and 1st February 2020’ here.

*   re ‘identical logic’, note that there were no BESS existing in NSW at the time.

From that chart we see that:

1  On Sat 1st Feb 2020 the highest point for Underlying Demand was 14,451MW at 15:00;

2  But there was actually a higher point on Fri 31st Jan 2020 (14,481MW at 15:30) with a spike in some of the underlying data.  This has not been investigated.

Either way, these points were below that derived for Thu 29th Feb 2024.

Thu 31st Jan 2019

There was no article published at the time about this day.

Highest point on the day was 13,778MW at 16:30 NEM time.

Using the AEMO’s published ‘Operational Demand’ date series (published on a 30 minute cadence) the high point for this day was 13,821MW.

Using the identical logic* to calculate ‘Underlying Demand’ as used for Thu 29th Feb 2024, I’ve wound the clock back at posted ‘Derivation of Underlying Demand in NSW on 29th,  30th and 31st January 2019′ here.

*   re ‘identical logic’, note that there were no BESS existing in NSW at the time.

From that chart we see that the highest point was at 14,421MW for the half hour ending 16:00 (NEM time) on Thursday 31st Jan 2019.

This point was below that derived for Thu 29th Feb 2024.

Fri 10th Feb 2017

On the day we posted ‘Demand in NSW soars but falls short of setting a new record’.

Highest point on the day was 14,108MW at 17:30 NEM time.

Using the AEMO’s published ‘Operational Demand’ date series (published on a 30 minute cadence) the high point for this day was 14,087MW.

This is the highest point shown in the data since the data began to be published.

But note that it’s lower than the ‘Market Demand’ level seen on 1st February 2011.

Using the identical logic* to calculate ‘Underlying Demand’ as used for Thu 29th Feb 2024, I’ve wound the clock back at posted ‘Derivation of Underlying Demand in NSW on 8th, 9th and 10th February 2017′ here.

*   re ‘identical logic’, note that:
(a)  there were no BESS existing in NSW at the time.
(b)  this was also before the AEMO was estimating rooftop PV, so the logic has been modified to use the APVI estimates … but beware of ‘the opacity of rooftop PV‘. 

From that chart we see that the highest point was at 14,447 MW for the half hour ending 15:00 (NEM time) on Friday 10th February 2017.

This point was below that derived for Thu 29th Feb 2024.

Fri 18th Jan 2013

On the day we posted ‘Scorching Sydney drives demand today into the red zone’.

Highest point on the day (and for summer 2012-13) was 13,857MW at 15:15 NEM time.

The AEMO only began publishing this data series in December 2014. 

So we can’t compare way back here on a perfect ‘apples-to-apples’ comparison.

Using the identical logic* to calculate ‘Underlying Demand’ as used for Thu 29th Feb 2024, I’ve wound the clock back at posted ‘Derivation of Underlying Demand in NSW on 16th, 17th and 18th January 2013′ here.

*   re ‘identical logic’, note that:
(a)  there were no BESS existing in NSW at the time.
(b)  there was also nothing counted in the way of solar production, and very small wind production.

From that chart we see that the highest point was at 13,949 MW for the half hour ending 15:30 (NEM time) on Friday 18th January 2013.

This point was below that derived for Thu 29th Feb 2024.

Tue 1st Feb 2011

On this day we wrote ‘NEM-wide demand higher still, as NSW regional demand eclipses record’.

The peak level seen was 14,649MW at 16:05.

The AEMO only began publishing this data series in December 2014. 

So we can’t compare way back here on a perfect ‘apples-to-apples’ comparison.

Using the identical logic* to calculate ‘Underlying Demand’ as used for Thu 29th Feb 2024, I’ve wound the clock back at posted ‘Derivation of Underlying Demand in NSW on 30th and 31st Jan and 1st Feb 2011′ here.

*   re ‘identical logic’, note that:
(a)  there were no BESS existing in NSW at the time.
(b)  there was also nothing counted in the way of solar production, and very small wind production.

From that chart we see that the highest point was at 14,718 MW for the half hour ending 16:30 (NEM time) on Tuesday 1st February 2011.

This point was below that derived for Thu 29th Feb 2024.