Load shed warning (LOR3) issued by AEMO for Tuesday in South Australia

Posted by Paul McArdle Sunday, June 2 2013 Topic: Winter 2013 in the NEM

An email alert triggered from a display copy of NEM-Watch we have running continually in the office alerted us to the forecast LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) condition for this Tuesday in South Australia:

Forecast LOR3 (load shedding) in South Australia on Tuesday

In NEM-Watch we can see that the predispatch forecast for Monday in South Australia is currently for a tight supply-demand balance, and so prices up near the Market Price Cap for a number of hours:

2013-06-02-at-20-10-NEM-Watch-forecast-LOR3-in-SA

Looking further into the future, with the ST PASA view in ez2view we can see that Tuesday (and subsequent days) is forecast to show negative surplus reserve in South Australia, and that this forecast has grown worse over the past 10 hours:

2013-06-02-at-20-15-ez2view-showing-negative-surplus-capacity-in-ST-PASA

As noted in their Market Notice, AEMO is seeking a market response to ensure that the load shedding will not be required – will be very interesting to see what eventuates!

Tags:

SHARE ON LINKEDIN SHARE ON TWITTER SHARE ON FACEBOOK

About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

Related Articles

Paul McArdle
Saturday, July 11 2009

A brief look at peak NEM-Wide Demand over recent winters

This weekend, we have prepared this analysis of the entries we received for our “Peak Demand Forecaster” competition for winter 2009.

In conjunction with this analysis, we thought it would be of interest to also incorporate this chart (generated from a BETA version of the NEM-Review v6 software package) to highlight how the peak NEM-Wide demand unfolded over the previous winters…

1 Trackbacks & Pingbacks

  1. Prices yo-yo in SA this morning, as installed capacity goes missing | WattClarity

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published.


*