Update to Constraint Violation Penalty (CVP) Factors – effective 19th September 2025
Referencing AEMO's MN129117 published Tuesday 16th September 2025 with respect to this Friday 19th September 2025.
All Posts
Six different lenses to view the ESOO 2025 … giving wildly different perspectives
About 4 weeks ago the 2025 ESOO was released. In this article we highlight 3 x 2 different ways this might be viewed - and note some other dimensions not considered.
‘we’re moving fast, but not fast enough’
Also featuring in the (perhaps misnamed) 'Faster than Forecast' session was David Dixon from Rystad - here's two things that jumped out to me.
‘the ISP Step Change Scenario is divorced from reality’
A short note about some comments made by Oliver Nunn during the 'Faster than Forecast' session at Queensland Clean Energy Summit on Mon 15th Sept 2025.
The ‘Faster than Forecast’ session in the afternoon of day 1 CEC’s QCES 2025
I thought it was worth noting a couple of observations following the afternoon session at day 1 of Queensland Clean Energy Summit, titled ‘Faster than Forecast’.
Two big climate-related documents for Australia released on Monday 15th September 2025
Whilst attending day 1 of the CEC’s ‘Queensland Clean Energy Summit 2025’ yesterday we noticed the release of the Climate Risk Assessment, and the Adaptation Plan
Frequency drop on Thursday evening 11th Sept 2025 with Tallawarra B trip
A quick article to explore a frequency drop on Thursday evening 11th September 2025.
Trended physical/technical availability of Semi-Scheduled units – aggregated
A zoomed-out view of six metrics supports understanding of physical/technical semi-scheduled generator availability.
Will I see you at the inaugural ‘NEMdev’ conference in Brisbane on Tue 7th and Wed 8th October 2025?
Worth a short note to point readers here to the current details about the conference – which is to be held in Brisbane on Tuesday 7th and Wednesday 8th October 2025.
3.5 months after the turbine fire at Bulgana Wind Farm, we take an updated look
Combining together a bundle of different metrics related to the 'availability' of a wind farm, we take a look at what's happened at Bulgana Wind Farm over the past ~25 months.
Guest Authored Posts
Why Gladstone’s prospective closure reveals a new kind of NEM failure
With the Queensland state government’s new energy roadmap due out tomorrow, Greg Elkins highlights how distorted signals and state interventions expose a new NEM failure.
The increasingly stochastic and volatile NEM
Oliver Nunn from Endgame Economics argues that we must begin to think about the distribution of prices in the NEM as a function of weather.
Detailed Analysis
What inputs and processes determine a semi-scheduled unit’s availability
It is indispensable to understand how the semi-scheduled unit availability gets produced to optimally manage the critical inputs and comprehend dispatch outcomes. This article explains the key inputs and processes, focusing on the dispatch...
Another research paper into solar and wind droughts in Australia
A quick note at another research paper (focused on an area of interest to us) that's crossed our field of vision.
Digging further into ‘Aggregate Scheduled Target’, to understand what Dispatchable Capacity is actually required
In conjunction with the analysis done to complete GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023 (released today), here's 14 years of daily data of 'Aggregate Scheduled Target' that might help to illustrate the aggregate requirement...
GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023 released
A quick note on Wednesday 31st May 2023 to mark the release of GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023.
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022… Part 4: the geographical spread of +861MW AggROT
In the fourth instalment of this ongoing case study, Dan Lee maps the locations and contributions of the semi-scheduled units that contributed to the +861MW Aggregate Raw Off-Target that occurred on the afternoon of...
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022 … part 3 … (+861MW AggROT – source of AvailGen)
In Part 3 of this Case Study, we look at the source of the Dispatch Interval Availability forecasts for these units at 17:05 on 27th October 2022 (i.e. Self-Forecast or something else, incl AWEFS/ASEFS).
Why capacity factor is an increasingly over-simplistic metric
Dan Lee explains why capacity factor could be becoming an increasingly less useful measure for comparing how different solar farms are performing and begins an exploration into some of the factors in play when...
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022 (+861MW AggROT for Semi-Scheduled units) … Part 1 of (an uncertain number)
In Part 1 of this Case Study, we start to look at the large collective under-performance across all Semi-Scheduled units (i.e. Wind and Large Solar) at 17:05 on 27th October 2022. More to come...