An initial walk through bidding during the volatility on Wednesday 11th June 2025
We take a first look at bidding across all units (aggregated up) for Wednesday 11th June 2025, with the volatile evening period of particular interest.
All Posts
Brief summary of outcomes (Price, Demand and IRPM) for Wednesday evening 11th June 2025
We start with this colour-coded tabular record of a 4-hour period (16:00 to 20:00 NEM time on Wednesday 11th June 2025) as a reference point for further analysis of the evening volatility.
Battery bidding is reshaping FCAS — But Demand Response remains a strategic asset
Paul Moore of Viotas look at recent supply-demand dynamics within the contingency FCAS markets and whether demand response can play a role.
High prices and tight spare supply, as NEM-wide IRPM drops down to 11.48% on Wednesday 11th June 2025
Cold weather this evening has brought prices above $7,000/MWh and tight reserve margins across the NEM.
Prices up in every region, on Wednesday evening 11th June 2025
A very quick note for Wednesday 11th June 2025 with this snapshot from NEMwatch at 17:00 (NEM time) to record the start of some elevated prices.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 5 – afternoon underestimations
A sequence of afternoon intervals stand out because the forecast appeared to be biased low – self-forecasts suddenly dropped roughly 30-40 percentage points and then increased a short time later.
AEMO notes increased forecast for Unserved Energy (USE) in QLD due to network outages scheduled between Tue 17th to Fri 20th June 2025
Yesterday (Tuesday 10th June 2025) at 14:21 the AEMO published MN127491 that noted 'The increase in USE in Queensland ... is primarily driven by network outages scheduled between 17 and 20 June 2025'.
Cold winter evening driving NEM-wide demand higher, such as on Tuesday 10th June 2025
A cold winter evening (Tuesday 10th June 2025) is driving electricity demand higher, as captured in this snapshot from NEMwatch at the 18:10 dispatch interval.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 4 – avoiding SDC periods
Theoretically, if a self-forecasting system never offers forecasts for more than 60% of intervals it may perpetually skip the performance assessment and the system could continue for use unsuppressed.
Unplanned outage at YWPS3 (tube leak) extended (due to air duct collapse)
Yallourn unit 3 came offline for a tube leak - but ABC reports (on Mon 9th June 2025) that 'an air duct in unit three collapsed during maintenance', so we take an initial look.
Guest Authored Posts
Triple C conditions (cold, calm and cloudy) across the NEM last Thursday evening 26th June 2025
Carl Daley examines the underlying conditions and outcomes that occurred last Thursday evening, the 26th of June.
We need more research on storage trading
In this guest post, Greg Williams calls for more research into how storage bidding—particularly auto-rebidding—is reshaping price formation and competition as flexible assets take centre stage in the NEM.
Detailed Analysis
Case Study (part 1) of low % VRE NEM-wide on 3rd and 4th July 2023
A brief article as a first Case Study looking at Mon 3rd and Tue 4th July 2023, in conjunction with the compilation of GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q3.
Demand Response as Market Participant: Square Peg in Round Hole?
A year ago we reviewed the market outcomes of wholesale demand response (WDR) in the NEM. It’s been 2 years now, providing a new milestone from which to review participation and impact. Can we...
Long or short on storage? A look into price signals for duration
Dan Lee looks into utility-scale storage in Queensland - including the need for megawatt-hours, the state of the build-out, and the current market price signal for duration.
GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q2 2023 released
A quick note to mark the the release of GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q2 2023 last week.
What inputs and processes determine a semi-scheduled unit’s availability
It is indispensable to understand how the semi-scheduled unit availability gets produced to optimally manage the critical inputs and comprehend dispatch outcomes. This article explains the key inputs and processes, focusing on the dispatch...
Another research paper into solar and wind droughts in Australia
A quick note at another research paper (focused on an area of interest to us) that's crossed our field of vision.
Digging further into ‘Aggregate Scheduled Target’, to understand what Dispatchable Capacity is actually required
In conjunction with the analysis done to complete GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023 (released today), here's 14 years of daily data of 'Aggregate Scheduled Target' that might help to illustrate the aggregate requirement...
GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023 released
A quick note on Wednesday 31st May 2023 to mark the release of GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023.