Pulling together an estimate for ‘Underlying Demand’ in NSW for Thursday 29th February 2024, it was very big – and occurred earlier than the peak in ‘Market Demand’, and is measured in different ways by different people.
At 16:35 on Thu 29th Feb 2024 the NSW demand peaked at its highest point in summer 2023-24.
Took a first look at the 15:10 price spike to the $16,600/MWh Market Price Cap in NSW on Thu 29th Feb 2024.
We’ve already witnessed four price spikes this afternoon as demand in NSW is approaching its expected peak. P5 forecasts are currently projects prices to remain at very elevated levels for the time being.
A mid-afternoon update about NSW on Thu 29th Feb 2024.
It’s early afternoon so here’s a quick look at forecasts for NSW on Thursday evening 29th Feb 2024.
It’s Thursday 29th Feb 2024 and with ‘next day public’ bid data we take a look back at the (very similarly profiled) short notice outages at Tarong unit 1 and unit 2 yesterday (Wed 28th Feb 2024).
AEMO current forecasts (at early afternoon Wed 28th Feb) still show a tight supply-demand balance in NSW for Thu 29th Feb afternoon/evening, but not as severe.
Following the earlier trips … TARONG#1 has come online, closely followed by TARONG#2.
TARONG#1 has come offline from close to minimum load this morning, closely followed by TARONG#2 (also from close to minimum load) – Wednesday 28th February 2024
AEMO updated forecasts for LOR2 in NSW (and now QLD) for Thursday 29th Feb 2024 are now more severe than the earlier forecasts.
A short note looking at CFA warnings of ‘Extreme Bushfire Risk’ for locations in Victoria on Wednesday 28th February 2024.
A Tuesday morning article, looking ahead to forecasts of LOR2 (tight supply-demand balance) for NSW on Thursday evening 29th February 2024
A short record of evening volatility in Queensland and NSW on Monday 26th February 2024.
Also from GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q4, the particular case of Tuesday 31st October 2023 is also worth sharing (and a broad audience understanding).
Returning a focus to GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q4, here’s a particular example from Sunday 24th December 2023 worth sharing (and a broad audience understanding).
A quick look forward (from Sun 25th Feb) towards Thursday 29th Feb 2024 in NSW
Twelve days ago there was news about a delay to return to service for Callide C3 (now to 31st March 2024), but we’d missed it.
Looking back at Tuesday 13th February 2024 there’s consistently large aggregate under-performance (compared to Target) across all Semi-Scheduled units in the NEM through daylight hours. The reason for the increased procurement of Regulation Raise.
It’s Friday evening 23rd Feb 2024 and spot prices are bouncing around like crazy.