Forecasts moderate, for NSW on Monday 6th January 2025

Last Thursday we noted that ‘AEMO publishes forecast LOR2 for NSW for Monday afternoon/evening 6th January 2025’.

Worth a short follow-on to say that the AEMO published MN122902 at 14:32 (NEM time) today as follows:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     06/01/2025     14:32:01

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Notice ID               :         122902
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         06/01/2025
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Cancellation of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the NSW Region on 06/01/2025

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

The Forecast LOR1 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 122896 is cancelled at 1430 hrs 06/01/2025.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’

Utilising the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view we can see the moderation of the forecasts in the following two images:

Remember that:
(a)  This widget allows one to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to ‘see that other dimension of time’.
(b)  Readers can click on the image for a larger-resolution view.

In the first window above (at the 15:15 dispatch interval, NEM time)  we can see that we’re waiting for the next ST PASA update on which the AEMO has based its cancellation of forecast LOR1 notice.  But, even aside from that, we can see that:

1)  In the second widget down, the forecast ‘Market Demand’ for NSW this afternoon/evening is such that the forecasts are ~1,000MW more modest than they were earlier;

2)  Additionally, we see that the forecast Available Generation into the evening is better than earlier forecasts.

Clearly both have combined (possibly in conjunction with other things) to assist in alleviating the earlier forecasts of tightness.

In the second window (also at the 15:15 dispatch interval, NEM time) above we can see that:

3)  The forecast UIGF for Wind Farms across NSW is still that the energy-constrained wind capability will be quite modest.

… before taking into account network curtailment or economic curtailment.

4)  We can also see that the forecast UIGF for Wind Farms across NSW is also that:

(a)  today has been much duller than the preceding days (such as Saturday)

(b)  and that we’re already past peak solar time for today.

For other context, useful to also include this snapshot from NEMwatch at the 15:10 dispatch interval:

Nothing further, at this point.