Forecast supply-demand for NSW for Thursday evening 14th December 2023 remains tight
An updated view of the forecast for a tight supply-demand balance for tomorrow (Thu 14th Dec 2023) in NSW.
Eventful Days
AEMO requests generator recall information in NSW and QLD for this Thursday 14th December 2023
Two AEMO market notices late this morning suggest that NSW and QLD are in for tight supply-demand later this week, with an LOR2 condition currently forecast in the former.
NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ peaks above 30,000MW on Friday 8th December 2023 … first time since July
The NEM-wide demand peaked (just!) above 30GW on Friday afternoon/evening 8th December 2023.
Case Study (Part 2) of Low % VRE NEM-wide on 3rd and 4th July 2023
The second part of an ongoing case study examining two successive days of low VRE generation in early July 2023. This part examines IRPM, earlier forecasts of available generation and maps the availability by site location.
Case Study – Severe Weather Challenges Day-Ahead Forecasts for 7, 8, 9 September 2023
A bout of severe weather for many parts of south-eastern Australia brought challenging weather conditions which appear to have impacted variable renewable energy forecasts for the NEM. The case study delves into forecast differences on the 7th, 8th and 9th of September 2023.
Rooftop Solar is crushing* the returns for Large-Scale VRE
Following the release of GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q3 we’ve chosen to share here one of the clear challenges for large-scale VRE that is emerging (particularly in 2023 Q3) due to the rise and rise of rooftop PV.
Thunderstorms in South Australia impact ~30,000 electricity customers on Tuesday 28th November 2023
Thunderstorms impacted parts of South Australia electricity system in the early hours of Tuesday morning, with two syncons tripping and around 30,000 customers experiencing outages.
Case Study (part 1) of Aggregate Scheduled Target on Friday 8th September 2023
The first part of a Case Study looking at a large 5-minute ramp in ‘Aggregate Scheduled Target’ in the middle of the day (an unusual time) on Friday 8th September 2023
Forecast low System Strength of concern in NSW for Tuesday 14th November 2023 … first time ever?
A quick note about a forecast by AEMO of shortfall in system strength in NSW region for Tuesday 14th November 2023.
Victoria’s ‘Market Demand’ low point drops further–on Sunday 12th November 2023
A quick record of Sun 12th Nov 2023, with ‘minimum demand’ dropping further in Victoria
A snapshot of Eraring unit 4 on Thursday afternoon 9th Nov 2023
Here’s a snapshot of the ‘Unit Dashboard’ widget in ez2view focused on Eraring unit 4 on Thu 9th Nov 2023 to illustrate the impacts of ramp rates in truncating available capacity in the bid.
Spot price volatility in South Australia on Thursday evening 9th Nov 2023
A quick review of spot price volatility seen in South Australia on Thursday evening 9th November 2023.
Case Study (part 1) of low % VRE NEM-wide on 3rd and 4th July 2023
A brief article as a first Case Study looking at Mon 3rd and Tue 4th July 2023, in conjunction with the compilation of GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q3.
Case Study (part 1) of large collective under-performance for Semi-Scheduled assets on Friday 18th August 2023
A brief article as a first Case Study looking at Friday 18th August 2023, in conjunction with the compilation of GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q3.
Brief loss of load around Townsville in the early hours of Saturday morning 21st October 2023
A quick initial article on Saturday morning 21st Oct 2023 about a significant loss of load in the Townsville area early this morning following a trip of some transmission elements.
New lowest point for NEM-wide demand also set on Sunday 1st October 2023
Looking back at yesterday (Sun 1st Oct 2023) it appears to also have seen a lowest point for NEM-wide demand by both measures … lower than the low point set ~2 weeks prior.
‘Minimum Demand’ in South Australia drops further below 0MW on Sun 1st October 2023 – measured by Market Demand
Also noteworthy on Sunday 1st October 2023 was a lower point for ‘minimum demand’ seen in South Australia … with ‘Market Demand’ down to -37MW and ‘Operational Demand’ down to 5MW (just above 0MW)
QLD minimum ‘Market Demand’ (in ordinary times) drops lower still, on Sunday 1st October 2023
Sunday 1st October 2023 and the ‘minimum demand’ point for the QLD region (measured by ‘Market Demand’) has fallen lower still on a sunny spring long weekend.
CS Energy update on repairs to Callide C3 and C4 cooling tower
A quick article, following a social media update by CS Energy on the repair process for the cooling towers at Callide C.
Federal Court finding relating to Pelican Point CCGT on 8th February 2017 … and upcoming market changes
Also in the news this week (a Federal Court judgement in relation to AER instituted proceedings against Engie in relation to Pelican Point from 8th Feb 2017) … which is coincidental with upcoming changes in the market for generator obligations.