A year-by-year look a changing times for “Gate Closure #3”
Gate Closure #3 represents the cut-off time for solar and wind availability forecasts to be used in dispatch. Since 2019 the timings are reducing and narrowing.
Long-Term Market trends and forecasts
A long-range trend of changing times for “Gate Closure #2”
A few questions (from several different directions) gave us pause to run this quick query of how ‘Gate Closure #2’ times (in the rebid process) have changed over time.
‘Market Demand’ in NSW briefly drops to 3,650MW on Saturday 31st August 2024 – a new all-time low point
Saturday 31st August 2024 saw warm temperatures and high rooftop PV yield contribute to a new low point for ‘Market Demand’ in NSW
Are we *still* not building enough replacement Firming Capacity?
In this third excerpt from GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2024 Q2, we share some perspectives about the amount of Firming Capacity projected to be delivered in net terms, to 2028 (given some withdrawals and some additions).
Coal-fired unit performance has improved markedly from the ‘dog year’ that was 2022
Following the recent release of the review of 2024 Q2 (and belated release of the review of 2024 Q1) here’s some updated statistics on coal unit performance.
Queensland ‘Market Demand’ drops below 3,000MW (for the first time in over 20 years), on Sunday 18th August 2024
Sunday 18th August 2024 sees Queensland reach a new ‘lowest’ point for ‘Market Demand’ … not quite 8 months after it saw a ‘highest ever’ point for ‘Market Demand’. Stretched at both ends, and a clear indication of the challenges of this energy transition.
How rare are simultaneous price spikes in all five NEM regions, like what we saw last night?
A short examination of some of the over-arching factors at play yesterday evening – where prices spiked above $3,000/MWh in all five regions simultaneously.
Final figures for wind production through 2024 Q2
We’ve ticked over the end of 2024 Q2, so here’s a short note to recap the long-range wind production statistics.
Highest-ever wind yield … *and* worst wind yield since June 2017!
… it does not seem logical that both can be true, but (from our look at the numbers) it does appear to be!
Updated long-range trend of aggregate wind production statistics
An accompanying article, to update this trend of long-range production statistics for all wind farms (aggregated) across the NEM.
Increase in NSW to QLD transfer limit on QNI to 850MW
AEMO note that (from 10:00 on Wed 10th April 2024) the QNI export limit will increase to a possible 850MW … we take a quick look at history.
Need for speed: How long has each battery project in the NEM taken to deliver?
Elon Musk’s ‘100 days or it’s free’ offer was made almost exactly 7 years ago – how much longer or shorter have battery development delivery times changed since then?
Antony Stace’s question about the step change (down) in QLD demand forecasts in AEMO MT PASA runs during February 2024
A question this morning by Antony Stace (on LinkedIn) about AEMO’s demand forecasts for QLD prompts some further context here in this WattClarity article, with quick use of ez2view.
State-of-charge: a peek into the economics and performances within the NEM’s battery fleet
A review of battery storage market performance in the NEM throughout 2023, a year in which where we saw the battery fleet double in size.
A long-range trend of large instances of Aggregate Raw Off-Target (AggROT) across all Semi-Scheduled units
The second article today (falling out of analysis for GenInsights Quarterly Update for 2023 Q4) presenting a long-term trend of the incidence of large instances of Aggregate Raw Off-Target across the growing number of Semi-Scheduled units operating in the NEM.
A 20-year trend of large instances of Aggregate Raw Off-Target (AggROT) across 44 x coal units to 31st Dec 2023
A first article today (falling out of analysis for GenInsights Quarterly Update for 2023 Q4) presenting a long-term trend of the incidence of large instances of Aggregate Raw Off-Target across the 44 x operational coal units currently operating in the NEM. A hypothesis as to the cause of recent changes, and some questions …
So where does NSW peak demand on Thu 29th Feb 2024 sit in historical context?
Putting the high demand seen in NSW on Thu 29th Feb 2024 in historical context.
Summer 2023-24 demand – high or low?
Inspired (or provoked) by Paul’s earlier article noting ‘NEM-wide demand has been quite low through summer 2023-24 (at least to date)’, guest author Allan O’Neil takes a look at how aggregate consumption stacks up for this summer, compared to prior.
Putting Monday’s record-breaking demand in QLD into context (22nd Jan 2024)
Still trying to make sense of what did and didn’t happen in QLD last night, Dan Lee provides some context to how yesterday’s record-breaking demand compares to similar historical events.
14-year trend in growth of maximum demand in Queensland
A short post looking back >14 years over trends of daily maximum demand in QLD