Is VRE forecastable? (Part 1 in what might be a series)
Over many years we've invested deeply in analysing the nuanced answer to the question 'Is VRE Forecastable?'. This article (which has almost been posted many times before) is...
Large-Scale VRE
Cataloguing various pieces of analysis with respect to VRE (variable renewable energy).
What’s happened to those Semi-Scheduled units registered to provide FCAS?
Following a question from a client today, we take a quick look at (some of) what the GSD2024 reveals of FCAS market participation of Semi-Scheduled units.
AER published ‘Semi-Scheduled Generator Compliance Bulletin’ on Tuesday 4th February 2025
Two weeks after the AER published its updated Compliance Bulletin (and Compliance Checklist) for Semi-Scheduled units, we've finally found time to note about it.
A look at curtailment through the GSD2024
After reviewing the latest version of our Generator Statistical Digest (GSD), David Leitch shares his top insights about VRE curtailment across the NEM in 2024.
Reviewing LGC creation at Codrington Wind Farm over ~24 years
With the news that Codrington Wind Farm (one of the first in the NEM) is to be closed, we take a quick look at 24 years of history.
Curtailment of Large Solar reaches ~72% (NEM-wide) on Sunday 16th February 2025
Given the situation that unfolded on Sunday 16th February 2025, we take a look at curtailment of Large Solar production (not quite a record).
Keeping up with the curtailment 2024: A little? too much? or much ado about nothing?
Drawing from our freshly released GSD2024, Dan provides some deeper insights into curtailment in the NEM, beyond the headline totals that were a topic of much online discussion...
Berrybank 1 and Berrybank 2 Wind Farms offline since Tuesday morning 4th February following wind turbine collapse
Prompted by a reader (and an ABC article) we take a look at Berrybank 1 & 2 Wind Farm following the turbine tower collapse on Tuesday 4th February...
A couple of wind turbines returned to service at Murra Warra 1 Wind Farm in Victoria
Finding another use for the relatively recent addition of the ELAV data set for Semi-Scheduled units, we follow on from a RenewEconomy article (in Nov 2024) to trend...
Locations of last week’s CIS winners vs known areas of congestion
After a suggestion from a reader, Dan plots the locations of the 19 winning CIS projects announced last week against economic and network curtailment data.
AEMO’s 2024 Intermittent Generator Forum provides renewed awareness for wind and solar generators
Information spanned a wide range of topics related to intermittent generator forecasting, and included a guest presentation by the AER.
AER sends clear message on self-forecasting behaviours
Semi-scheduled generators shouldn't treat self-forecasts as commercial parameters. The regulator holds significant concerns with the biasing of self-forecasts for commercial benefit.
(Up to) 75% of Large Solar capability curtailed across the NEM, on Sunday 22nd September 2024
With new 'lowest' points for demand in NSW reached over the weekend, today we take a quick look back at curtailment across Large Solar Farms right across the...
Curtailment (spillage) of Large Solar reaches 2/3 of total resource, on Saturday 24th August 2024
A short record of some large curtailment of Large Solar resource on Saturday 24th August 2024.
Trended NEM-wide % VRE over 12 days in June 2024
A short article in conjunction with GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2024 Q2, trending NEM-wide % VRE over 12 days in June 2024.
Final figures for wind production through 2024 Q2
We've ticked over the end of 2024 Q2, so here's a short note to recap the long-range wind production statistics.
Where’s the wind gone, through 2024 Q2? … with June perhaps even worse than April or May!
Extending the 'worm line' cumulative trend of wind production through 2024 Q2 (to 22nd June) and comparing to 2023, 2022, 2021 and 2020 reveals a picture that is,...
Correlation between low wind Capacity Factor and low IRPM (NEM-wide) in recent evenings + Thursday evening looks likely to be low, as well.
Given what's happened for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday evening this week (and even tighter supply-demand balance forecast for Thursday evening) we take a look at the correlation between...
How predictable is the wind (a short Case Study of Thursday evening 30th May 2024)?
An (initial and) short review of the solid block of high aggregate wind yield over the ~3 day date range (late Tuesday 28th May 2024 to late Friday...
‘Another challenging week’ for VRE NEM-wide, beginning Wednesday 8th May 2024
Coincidentally today, David Osmond has posted about 'another challenging week' for VRE NEM-wide (a week beginning Wed 8th May 2024 - the day NSW hit the Cumulative Price...