Games that self-forecasters can* play (Part 1 – An Overview)
I've promised to write this article for some time, but a few recent events (and looming start of FPP) have caused me to publish this now.
Cataloguing various pieces of analysis with respect to VRE (variable renewable energy).
I've promised to write this article for some time, but a few recent events (and looming start of FPP) have caused me to publish this now.
Josh Boegheim from Powerlink discusses the limitations of perfect foresight assumptions for system planning—and shares results from a recent study that simulated energy storage dispatch using deterministic and stochastic forecasting approaches.
At the end of February 2025, the AER wrote to Semi-Scheduled generators, and other interested parties, warning of the AER’s concerns about self-forecasting practices.
Over many years we've invested deeply in analysing the nuanced answer to the question 'Is VRE Forecastable?'. This article (which has almost been posted many times before) is triggered today by yet one more...
Following a question from a client today, we take a quick look at (some of) what the GSD2024 reveals of FCAS market participation of Semi-Scheduled units.
Two weeks after the AER published its updated Compliance Bulletin (and Compliance Checklist) for Semi-Scheduled units, we've finally found time to note about it.
After reviewing the latest version of our Generator Statistical Digest (GSD), David Leitch shares his top insights about VRE curtailment across the NEM in 2024.
With the news that Codrington Wind Farm (one of the first in the NEM) is to be closed, we take a quick look at 24 years of history.
Given the situation that unfolded on Sunday 16th February 2025, we take a look at curtailment of Large Solar production (not quite a record).
Drawing from our freshly released GSD2024, Dan provides some deeper insights into curtailment in the NEM, beyond the headline totals that were a topic of much online discussion earlier this week.
Prompted by a reader (and an ABC article) we take a look at Berrybank 1 & 2 Wind Farm following the turbine tower collapse on Tuesday 4th February 2025.
Finding another use for the relatively recent addition of the ELAV data set for Semi-Scheduled units, we follow on from a RenewEconomy article (in Nov 2024) to trend the availability of the Murra Warra...
After a suggestion from a reader, Dan plots the locations of the 19 winning CIS projects announced last week against economic and network curtailment data.
Information spanned a wide range of topics related to intermittent generator forecasting, and included a guest presentation by the AER.
Semi-scheduled generators shouldn't treat self-forecasts as commercial parameters. The regulator holds significant concerns with the biasing of self-forecasts for commercial benefit.
With new 'lowest' points for demand in NSW reached over the weekend, today we take a quick look back at curtailment across Large Solar Farms right across the NEM.
A short record of some large curtailment of Large Solar resource on Saturday 24th August 2024.
A short article in conjunction with GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2024 Q2, trending NEM-wide % VRE over 12 days in June 2024.
We've ticked over the end of 2024 Q2, so here's a short note to recap the long-range wind production statistics.
Extending the 'worm line' cumulative trend of wind production through 2024 Q2 (to 22nd June) and comparing to 2023, 2022, 2021 and 2020 reveals a picture that is, at the same time, both frightening...