Cataloguing various pieces of analysis with respect to VRE (variable renewable energy).
A sequence of afternoon intervals stand out because the forecast appeared to be biased low – self-forecasts suddenly dropped roughly 30-40 percentage points and then increased a short time later.
Theoretically, if a self-forecasting system never offers forecasts for more than 60% of intervals it may perpetually skip the performance assessment and the system could continue for use unsuppressed.
Taking a guess at frequency need to earn a positive causer-pays factor through self-forecast biasing appears at-best uncertain in the intervals we review.
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
Let’s now return to Monday 26th May 2025 to look at aggregate ‘Dispatch Error’ across both Semi-Scheduled fuel types for all dispatch intervals in the day.
Taking a closer look at the new 'highest ever' point for NEM-wide Wind Production on Monday 26th May 2025, and how well this was forecast in advance.
47% of dispatch intervals for semi-scheduled solar units are seeing a self-forecast used. When there are gaps, was the unit suppressed?
Following his presentation at the CEC's Wind Industry Forum, Jonathon Dyson shares lessons learned from helping developers and operators of wind projects in solidifying their business case.
We summarise how wind units are using self-forecasting to-date. The analysis leads us to consider where upcoming market change may lead the industry.
Dan shares a short time-lapse video which demonstrates four days worth of activity in the NEM, highlighting the impact of network congestion in QLD and NSW.
I've promised to write this article for some time, but a few recent events (and looming start of FPP) have caused me to publish this now.
Josh Boegheim from Powerlink discusses the limitations of perfect foresight assumptions for system planning—and shares results from a recent study that simulated energy storage dispatch using deterministic and stochastic forecasting approaches.
At the end of February 2025, the AER wrote to Semi-Scheduled generators, and other interested parties, warning of the AER’s concerns about self-forecasting practices.
Over many years we've invested deeply in analysing the nuanced answer to the question 'Is VRE Forecastable?'. This article (which has almost been posted many times before) is triggered today by yet one more...
Following a question from a client today, we take a quick look at (some of) what the GSD2024 reveals of FCAS market participation of Semi-Scheduled units.
Two weeks after the AER published its updated Compliance Bulletin (and Compliance Checklist) for Semi-Scheduled units, we've finally found time to note about it.
After reviewing the latest version of our Generator Statistical Digest (GSD), David Leitch shares his top insights about VRE curtailment across the NEM in 2024.
With the news that Codrington Wind Farm (one of the first in the NEM) is to be closed, we take a quick look at 24 years of history.