Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 2 – relative accuracy
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
Cataloguing various pieces of analysis with respect to VRE (variable renewable energy).
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
Let’s now return to Monday 26th May 2025 to look at aggregate ‘Dispatch Error’ across both Semi-Scheduled fuel types for all dispatch intervals in the day.
Taking a closer look at the new 'highest ever' point for NEM-wide Wind Production on Monday 26th May 2025, and how well this was forecast in advance.
47% of dispatch intervals for semi-scheduled solar units are seeing a self-forecast used. When there are gaps, was the unit suppressed?
Following his presentation at the CEC's Wind Industry Forum, Jonathon Dyson shares lessons learned from helping developers and operators of wind projects in solidifying their business case.
We summarise how wind units are using self-forecasting to-date. The analysis leads us to consider where upcoming market change may lead the industry.
Dan shares a short time-lapse video which demonstrates four days worth of activity in the NEM, highlighting the impact of network congestion in QLD and NSW.
I've promised to write this article for some time, but a few recent events (and looming start of FPP) have caused me to publish this now.
Josh Boegheim from Powerlink discusses the limitations of perfect foresight assumptions for system planning—and shares results from a recent study that simulated energy storage dispatch using deterministic and stochastic forecasting approaches.
At the end of February 2025, the AER wrote to Semi-Scheduled generators, and other interested parties, warning of the AER’s concerns about self-forecasting practices.
Over many years we've invested deeply in analysing the nuanced answer to the question 'Is VRE Forecastable?'. This article (which has almost been posted many times before) is triggered today by yet one more...
Following a question from a client today, we take a quick look at (some of) what the GSD2024 reveals of FCAS market participation of Semi-Scheduled units.
Two weeks after the AER published its updated Compliance Bulletin (and Compliance Checklist) for Semi-Scheduled units, we've finally found time to note about it.
After reviewing the latest version of our Generator Statistical Digest (GSD), David Leitch shares his top insights about VRE curtailment across the NEM in 2024.
With the news that Codrington Wind Farm (one of the first in the NEM) is to be closed, we take a quick look at 24 years of history.
Given the situation that unfolded on Sunday 16th February 2025, we take a look at curtailment of Large Solar production (not quite a record).
Drawing from our freshly released GSD2024, Dan provides some deeper insights into curtailment in the NEM, beyond the headline totals that were a topic of much online discussion earlier this week.
Prompted by a reader (and an ABC article) we take a look at Berrybank 1 & 2 Wind Farm following the turbine tower collapse on Tuesday 4th February 2025.
Finding another use for the relatively recent addition of the ELAV data set for Semi-Scheduled units, we follow on from a RenewEconomy article (in Nov 2024) to trend the availability of the Murra Warra...