Some perspectives on events last Thursday and Friday
Some observations about the events across Victoria and South Australia of Thursday 18th and Friday 19th January 2018.
Victoria
AEMO dispatches Reserve Trader into a boiling Victorian region on Friday 19th January 2018
Reserve Trader dispatched
AEMO announces intention to (possibly) intervene in Victoria for Friday 19th January (by invoking Reserve Trader)
AEMO announces the possibility of dispatching “Reserve Trader” tomorrow to address a forecast tight supply/demand balance.
Tight supply/demand balance forecast for SA, VIC and TAS on Thursday and Friday
With high temperatures forecast for Thursday and Friday, here’s a quick look at what might be in store…
It’ll be hot in parts of the NEM tomorrow (Saturday 6th Jan) but don’t expect demand to be too high – and don’t be trigger happy on the Emergency Demand Response!
Weather forecasts tell of an expected hot weekend on Saturday (in Melbourne & Adelaide) and then Sunday (in Sydney) – which has led to some news articles talking about “searing heat across the southeast putting energy supplies under pressure”. Let’s not get carried away – it looks like the levels of demand will be pretty moderate.
Afternoon “Scheduled Demand” in Victoria on Christmas Day drops as low as overnight demand
Afternoon demand on Christmas Day as low as overnight demand as a result of several factors
Coincident warm demand forecast for VIC and NSW tomorrow late afternoon (Monday 18th December)
AEMO forecasts NEM-wide demand to exceed 32,000MW tomorrow (Monday 18th December), which is far higher than seen in December 2016, and one reason for the LOR1 low reserve notices.
“Scheduled Demand” in Victoria stopped short of 8,500MW today (lower than forecast) but the demand peak forecast for NSW tomorrow has grown to almost 13,000MW
Demand in Victoria peaked lower than forecast today, but demand forecasts for NSW tomorrow are continuing to climb.
High temperatures to give demand a kick in Victoria tomorrow (Wednesday 13th December)
AEMO forecasts higher demand in Victoria (and South Australia) tomorrow with the hot weather – and a slight LOR1 warning.
Possibilities of Peak Demand (VIC and SA) during summer 2017-18
Our guest author, Rob Davis, looks at what might emerge for summer 2017-18 given the La Nina outlook, and prior distributions of Cooling Degree Days for Victoria and South Australia
2 x Loy Yang A units offline this afternoon
Two units temporarily offline at Loy Yang A on Monday 8th May (not without coincidence/conspiracy theories)
Warnings of load shedding in Victoria and South Australia on Thursday 11th May, and larger on Monday 15th May
Autumn 2017 continues the very rocky experience that’s become “new normal” for the National Electricity Market – with warnings of load shedding for Victoria and South Australia this week and next
More trouble brewing at Loy Yang A power station – with strike action called
A quick look at the market, following announcement of industrial action next week at Loy Yang A power station
End of an era at Hazelwood
A record of the closure of Hazelwood this week – and some initial thoughts on the implications
With the closure of Hazelwood looming, hedge contract prices climb skywards
Ominous signs for spot price outcomes through Q2 2016 in Victoria, as hedge contract prices climb prior to the imminent closure of Hazelwood.
Southern NEM demand awakes from slumber
Hot weather in Adelaide and Melbourne driving an interesting outlook for Thursday
… meanwhile, down at Loy Yang A…
A few quick notes about this week’s developments at Loy Yang A power station
Victorian “Scheduled Demand” plunges to its lowest ever* level – early on Monday 2nd January
Victoria saw what seems to be the lowest ever* level of electricity demand early on Monday 2nd January 2017
What’s going on with Victorian electricity demand?
A question, about why Victorian electricity demand seems to be trending lower and lower…
Energy sector unions throw oil onto fire
Putting another cat amongst the pigeons, energy sector unions at Loy Yang A have announced Industrial Action at the station over Christmas.