The worst periods of frequency stability on Thursday 16th October 2025 were *not* with the simultaneous trip of YWPS3 and YWPS4, but rather later and the day - and look similar to patterns seen...
No Mixed aggregate dispatch groups have been registered.
A zoomed-out view of six metrics supports understanding of physical/technical semi-scheduled generator availability.
A sequence of afternoon intervals stand out because the forecast appeared to be biased low – self-forecasts suddenly dropped roughly 30-40 percentage points and then increased a short time later.
Theoretically, if a self-forecasting system never offers forecasts for more than 60% of intervals it may perpetually skip the performance assessment and the system could continue for use unsuppressed.
Taking a guess at frequency need to earn a positive causer-pays factor through self-forecast biasing appears at-best uncertain in the intervals we review.
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
Taking a closer look at the new 'highest ever' point for NEM-wide Wind Production on Monday 26th May 2025, and how well this was forecast in advance.
47% of dispatch intervals for semi-scheduled solar units are seeing a self-forecast used. When there are gaps, was the unit suppressed?
In his third article, Jack Fox uses the Non Financial Operation (NFO) data to take a look at some VRE units, and how they would have performed under FPP.
We thank the Clean Energy Council for the opportunity to share insights into revenue trends, cost trends, and analysis of upcoming changes for units operating in the NEM.
Over many years we've invested deeply in analysing the nuanced answer to the question 'Is VRE Forecastable?'. This article (which has almost been posted many times before) is triggered today by yet one more...
After reviewing the latest version of our Generator Statistical Digest (GSD), David Leitch shares his top insights about VRE curtailment across the NEM in 2024.
We understand how the solar farm units received targets of 0 MW, when the constraint appears to simply limit the inverter count to 100.
Information spanned a wide range of topics related to intermittent generator forecasting, and included a guest presentation by the AER.
A short article in conjunction with GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2024 Q2, trending NEM-wide % VRE over 12 days in June 2024.
… it does not seem logical that both can be true, but (from our look at the numbers) it does appear to be!
Finding some time to make some progress in compiling GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2024 Q1, here's a short Case Study of Thursday 22nd February 2024 (a day that saw significant collective under-performance of Semi-Scheduled...