Games that self-forecasters can* play (Part 1 – An Overview)
I've promised to write this article for some time, but a few recent events (and looming start of FPP) have caused me to publish this now.
Unconstrained Intermittent Generation Forecast (UIGF)
AWEFS and ASEFS dispatch availability forecast outage on 11 March, 2025
AWEFS and ASEFS dispatch availability forecast systems experienced what looks to be an outage and we uncover how the 'SCADA' origin filled the gap.
(A first step into the complexities of) the Dispatch Interval in the Real World
A third step in the 'Energy Literacy' journey in helping readers to understand the complexities within each and every Dispatch Interval.
A curious case of UIGF for Hamilton Solar Farm on Wednesday 12th February 2025 (Part1)
Here's a first look at (generating lots of questions about) Hamilton Solar Farm, and particularly the Availability forecast, back on Wednesday 12th February 2025.
AER sends clear message on self-forecasting behaviours
Semi-scheduled generators shouldn't treat self-forecasts as commercial parameters. The regulator holds significant concerns with the biasing of self-forecasts for commercial benefit.
Delivering oscillations, whilst seeking to minimise oscillations? A Case Study (Part 1?) of Darlington Point Solar Farm on Thursday 29th August 2024
A case study, drawing heavily on various widgets in ez2view, looking at some large (and unexpected) oscillations in output at Darlington Point Solar Farm through a ~2 hour period on Thursday 29th August 2024.
A year-by-year look a changing times for “Gate Closure #3”
Gate Closure #3 represents the cut-off time for solar and wind availability forecasts to be used in dispatch. Since 2019 the timings are reducing and narrowing.
Wet weather in QLD brings reduced solar output during August 12 and 13, 2024
The wet weather in Queensland has impacted solar energy production.
Stubborn forecasts for LOR2 (low reserve condition) for NSW for Thursday evening 29th February 2024
A Tuesday morning article, looking ahead to forecasts of LOR2 (tight supply-demand balance) for NSW on Thursday evening 29th February 2024
Wind production ramps down in NSW, coincident with Increased Demand (and then Actual LOR2)
One factor contributing to the tight supply-demand balance is the decline in wind production (and capability) inverse to the rise in 'Market Demand'.
A quick look at forecasts for available wind generation in NSW for this evening 14th December 2023
A quick look at Semi-Scheduled Wind UIGF forecasts for this evening, where tight supply-demand is expected in NSW.
Worth a read – ESIG Report ‘Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems’
This morning I was fortunate to listen into an ESIG Webinar with respect to their report 'Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems'
Semi-Scheduled Bid MaxAvail – Initial Results
A week's worth of data provides indications of how semi-scheduled generators are using bid MaxAvail to manage dispatch availability.
What inputs and processes determine a semi-scheduled unit’s availability
It is indispensable to understand how the semi-scheduled unit availability gets produced to optimally manage the critical inputs and comprehend dispatch outcomes. This article explains the key inputs and processes, focusing on the dispatch...
An imminent improvement to the bidding and dispatch process for Semi-Scheduled units
AEMO is re-enabling the ‘MaxAvail’ figure in bids for Semi-Scheduled units. It will act as a limit on capacity available, feeding into the NEMDE dispatch process for the unit. We look at how Semi-Scheduled...
Delving deeper into dispatch availability self-forecasting performance
We delve deeper into dispatch availability self-forecasts and the assessment process to further enhance our understanding of this important aspect, testing sensitivity to gate closure times and requirements on minimum intervals.
Price spikes in South Australia above $9,000/MWh – due to unforecast cloud cover?!
Out-of-the-blue, the price spikes up near $10,000/MWh in South Australia on an otherwise 'boring' day ... a sign of what we should expect increasingly in future?