As the 5th article in an evolving series that progressively explores the (apparent self-forecasting glitch and) frequency spike on Tuesday 19th August 2025, we take an early look at Solar Farm performance.
The (concerning) frequency spike across the NEM in the middle of the day (Tuesday 19th August 2025) has triggered many proximate questions - understandable - but also has raised these 3 Broader Questions.
It appears it was unit availability used to set the target for dispatch that went awry, rather than unit output.
Among other aspects, a large dip in solar UIGF aligns with the frequency deviation observed on 19th August 2025.
Yesterday's release of the draft report of the Nelson Review has prompted me to re-frame a question I've asked before about the Semi-Scheduled category.
It was now just over 5 years ago when Marcelle wrote ‘Not as simple as it appears – estimating curtailment of renewable generation’. This week's invocation of the 'N-DPWG_63_X5' constraint set provides a great...
A sequence of afternoon intervals stand out because the forecast appeared to be biased low – self-forecasts suddenly dropped roughly 30-40 percentage points and then increased a short time later.
Theoretically, if a self-forecasting system never offers forecasts for more than 60% of intervals it may perpetually skip the performance assessment and the system could continue for use unsuppressed.
We summarise how wind units are using self-forecasting to-date. The analysis leads us to consider where upcoming market change may lead the industry.
I've promised to write this article for some time, but a few recent events (and looming start of FPP) have caused me to publish this now.
AWEFS and ASEFS dispatch availability forecast systems experienced what looks to be an outage and we uncover how the 'SCADA' origin filled the gap.
A third step in the 'Energy Literacy' journey in helping readers to understand the complexities within each and every Dispatch Interval.
Here's a first look at (generating lots of questions about) Hamilton Solar Farm, and particularly the Availability forecast, back on Wednesday 12th February 2025.
Semi-scheduled generators shouldn't treat self-forecasts as commercial parameters. The regulator holds significant concerns with the biasing of self-forecasts for commercial benefit.
A case study, drawing heavily on various widgets in ez2view, looking at some large (and unexpected) oscillations in output at Darlington Point Solar Farm through a ~2 hour period on Thursday 29th August 2024.
Gate Closure #3 represents the cut-off time for solar and wind availability forecasts to be used in dispatch. Since 2019 the timings are reducing and narrowing.
The wet weather in Queensland has impacted solar energy production.
A Tuesday morning article, looking ahead to forecasts of LOR2 (tight supply-demand balance) for NSW on Thursday evening 29th February 2024
One factor contributing to the tight supply-demand balance is the decline in wind production (and capability) inverse to the rise in 'Market Demand'.
A quick look at Semi-Scheduled Wind UIGF forecasts for this evening, where tight supply-demand is expected in NSW.