It was a hot and sweaty walk home from the Brisbane office late this afternoon, accompanied by the incessant buzzing of my phone … due to the run of volatility in NSW and QLD...
An earlier-than-expected spike in spot price in NSW on Thursday afternoon 7th November 2024.
A quick look in the morning of Thursday 7th November 2024 utilizing this collage of 4 different ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets in ez2view at the 08:35 dispatch interval looking forward to this evening.
Here’s a snapshot of NEMwatch at the 17:50 dispatch interval (NEM time) highlighting evening volatility in the QLD and NSW regions as we pass beyond sunset on this warm-for-November day.
Worth a short note, given the alerts from ez2view have continued to buzz in recent days, as the AEMO continues to update forecast LOR2 warnings for both QLD and NSW regions for Thursday 7th...
From the 12:05 dispatch interval, today's series of SMS alerts has started from the 12:05 dispatch interval (NEM time) announcing new ‘lowest ever*’ points for ‘Market Demand’ in NSW.
With forecasts for a very, very low level of 'Market Demand' tomorrow (Sat 26th Oct 2024) in NSW, here's a longer term trend to show how it would fit in context.
It was only 5 days (on Sunday 20th October 2024) when we saw a new 'lowest ever*' point for 'Market Demand' in NSW ... so we're amazed to see AEMO forecasting a low point...
In the following dispatch interval (11:50 on Sunday 20th October 2024) the level of 'Market Demand' fell ~200MW ... below the prior 'lowest ever*' point set a few weeks earlier.
A short article capturing a new lowest point for 'Market Demand' in NSW on Sunday 8th October 2024.
On Sunday 22nd September 2024 the minimum demand point for 'Market Demand' in NSW dropped lower still.
The 'Minimum Demand' point in NSW is dropping further still, on Saturday 21st September 2024.
On Sunday 1st September 2024 the 'minimum demand' point in NSW ratcheted lower still - a drop of 6% on the preceding 'lowest ever' point set just over 10 months ago.
Saturday 31st August 2024 saw warm temperatures and high rooftop PV yield contribute to a new low point for 'Market Demand' in NSW
A quick summary of some morning volatility (particularly SA, VIC and SA) on Monday morning 5th August 2024.
A short examination of some of the over-arching factors at play yesterday evening - where prices spiked above $3,000/MWh in all five regions simultaneously.
Already this evening we’ve seen a rare occurrence of price spikes in all five NEM regions simultaneously.
A challenging sequence of events is detailed in the preliminary report on load shedding in NSW on 8 July 2024.
A short (perhaps initial) record of load shedding instructed for NSW on Monday evening 8th July 2024.
We just witnessed another eventful Q2, with at least four drivers contributing to significant price volatility. This is our annual review of Q2 prices, where we compare these outcomes against the long-term trend.