AEMO forecasts deep LOR2 in NSW on Thursday 25th January 2024
Whilst still recovering from Mon 22nd Jan 2024, this article takes a first look towards Thu 25th Jan 2024 (which could be a big one in NSW).
NSW
Recapping the accelerating decline in ‘Minimum Demand’ levels across the NEM, at the end of 2023
A tabular summary of how ‘declining demand’ has been an accelerating theme in most regions of the NEM (and NEM-wide) through 2023.
AEMO forecast for LOR2 in NSW on Tuesday 19th December 2023
A short initial note about AEMO’s currently forecast LOR2 for NSW next Tuesday 19th December 2023.
Belated notice from the AEMO about RERT contracted for yesterday (Thu 14th Dec 2023)
It’s Friday morning and AEMO has just published a Market Notice to alert the market that RERT was contracted for yesterday evening in NSW (Thu 14th Dec 2023).
Wind production ramps down in NSW, coincident with Increased Demand (and then Actual LOR2)
One factor contributing to the tight supply-demand balance is the decline in wind production (and capability) inverse to the rise in ‘Market Demand’.
Actual LOR2 in NSW from 17:30 on Thursday 14th December 2023
‘Market Demand’ has ramped back up, leading to an ‘Actual LOR2’ low reserve condition in NSW on Thu 14th Dec 2023
NSW ‘Market Demand’ climbs past 13,000MW – and IRPM drops – but prices stay moderate
NSW ‘Market Demand’ exceeds 13,000MW for the first time today (Thu 14th Dec 2023)
NSW ‘Market Demand’ squeezes 12,500MW as price passes $500/MWh
Getting closer to the time of forecast peak in demand, the forecast LOR2 is revised downwards.
RERT negotiations underway in NSW … at the same time as the NSW spot price is negative and forecast spikes have disappeared
A strange coincidence with the AEMO ‘intending to commence’ negotiations about Reserve Trader for NSW – for this afternoon/evening.
RERT negotiations commenced in NSW by AEMO on Thursday 14th December 2023
A short post to note that the AEMO have published a market notice stating an intention to commence RERT negotiations in NSW.
NSW ‘Market Demand’ over 11,000MW – and forecast evening demand warming back towards 13,000MW
A quick update into Thursday afternoon with forecast for this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023 in NSW
A quick look at forecasts for available wind generation in NSW for this evening 14th December 2023
A quick look at Semi-Scheduled Wind UIGF forecasts for this evening, where tight supply-demand is expected in NSW.
Demand forecast moderating for NSW for Thursday evening, 14th December 2023
A late morning update on forecast conditions for NSW this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023
Forecast supply-demand for NSW for Thursday evening 14th December 2023 remains tight
An updated view of the forecast for a tight supply-demand balance for tomorrow (Thu 14th Dec 2023) in NSW.
AEMO requests generator recall information in NSW and QLD for this Thursday 14th December 2023
Two AEMO market notices late this morning suggest that NSW and QLD are in for tight supply-demand later this week, with an LOR2 condition currently forecast in the former.
Price volatility also in NSW on Friday 8th December 2023
Second article on Friday 8th December 2023, about two NSW spikes that top-and-tail the volatility written about earlier in South Australia.
Brief period of spot volatility in QLD and NSW on Tuesday evening 5th December 2023
Some volatility in QLD and NSW on Tuesday 5th December 2023.
Forecast low System Strength of concern in NSW for Tuesday 14th November 2023 … first time ever?
A quick note about a forecast by AEMO of shortfall in system strength in NSW region for Tuesday 14th November 2023.
Media Release = ‘Capacity Investment Scheme supports NSW to deliver 1 GW of cleaner, cheaper, more reliable energy’
The Media Release from the NSW Department of Energy on 22nd November 2023 noting 1,075MW of new firming capacity in NSW – targeting operational date of December 2025.
NSW region hit new ‘lowest ever’ point for Market Demand on Sunday 8th October 2023
A quick record of a new ‘lowest ever’ point for Market Demand in NSW on Sunday 8th October 2023