AEMO updates forecast for supply-demand balance on Monday morning 20th May 2024 … now forecast LOR2
Following several changes in the forecast for Monday morning 20th May 2024, the AEMO has issued a ‘forecast LOR2’ notice.
Following several changes in the forecast for Monday morning 20th May 2024, the AEMO has issued a ‘forecast LOR2’ notice.
Today (Wed 15th May 2024) Bruce Mountain writes an opinion piece in the Australian about the recent run of Administered Pricing in NSW, and what it means for the looming closure of Eraring and the energy transition.
as expected, Administered Pricing has ended in NSW at 04:00 on Wednesday 15th May 2024
A short (early afternoon) look at the progression of Cumulative Price in NSW, almost 7 days after the evening volatility on Tuesday 7th May 2024 started the climb to the Cumulative Price Threshold.
Following a conversation with one journalist yesterday, and a tweet from another journalist, here’s an updated trend of NSW ‘baseload’ futures contract prices for 12 x quarters.
Looking back 4 days (including Wed 8th May 2024) at NSW gas-fired generator bidding.
Looking back 4 days (including Wed 8th May 2024) at NSW coal-fired generator bidding.
A short record of Thursday evening 9th May 2024, with NSW under Administered Pricing.
At 19:55 (NEM time) on Wednesday 8th May 2024, the NSW region commenced Administered Pricing for ENERGY and 10 x FCAS commodities, following a rapid spell of spot price volatility.
Blasting past 3 hours this afternoon/evening (and still counting), the run of spot price volatility in NSW drives the Cumulative Price up towards the CPT. Will it break the cap this evening, or tomorrow?
Price volatility has continued in NSW this afternoon, starting at around 3:40pm local time.
A second article providing some more detail on the spot price volatility in NSW on Tuesday evening 7th May 2024
A short initial article about the spot price volatility in NSW on Tuesday evening 7th May 2024
With GenInsights Quarterly Update for 2023 Q4 completed, and some time till the end of 2024 Q1, we’ve looked back at Tuesday 14th November 2023 (when AEMO had concerns about low System Strength in NSW) and looked at the level of inertia actually seen in the grid. A useful Case Study to say ‘what would have happened without Eraring?’
The Russ Christ Effect can be described as cloud impacts on rooftop PV arriving before any associated cooling conditions. We consider the extent to which a sudden and unforecast jump in demand was driven by this phenomenon.
A quick look back at Thu 29th Feb 2024 – a day where afternoon (congestion-based) curtailment of Large Solar in NSW exacerbated the tight supply-demand balance and spot price volatility.
Winding back the clock to summer 2010-11 we take a look at (our derivation of) Underlying Demand for NSW on 30th and 31st Jan and Tuesday 1st Feb 2011.
Winding back the clock to summer 2012-13 we take a look at (our derivation of) Underlying Demand for NSW on 16th, 17th and 18th January 2013.
Winding back the clock to summer 2016-17 we take a look at (our derivation of) Underlying Demand for NSW on 8th, 9th and 10th February 2017.
Winding back the clock to summer 2018-19 we take a look at (our derivation of) Underlying Demand for NSW on 29th, 30th and Thu 31st Jan 2019.