AEMO now forecasting possible LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW on Wednesday 27th November 2024
The most recent ST PASA forecast now shows a sliver of forecast LOR3 (i.e. forecast Load Shedding) for the NSW region on Wed 27th Nov 2024
NSW
The forecasts for LORx in NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024 have been dialled down considerably … why is that the case?
In the >36 hours since an article on Wednesday the forecasts for LORx on Tuesday 26th November 2024 have become less strident. We start to look at why...
Here’s a few things to watch, w.r.t. the forecast tight supply-demand balance in NSW (and QLD) for early next week
In this article on Wednesday evening 20th November 2024 we suggest a couple factors to keep an eye on, leading into the expected tight supply-demand balance (and possible load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday...
It’s back! Forecast LOR3 for NSW on Monday 26th November 2024
It should be no surprise to readers that we’ve more recently slipped back below that threshold line (back into ‘forecast LOR3’ territory) in MN120725 published at 17:10 on Wed 20th Nov 2024.
AEMO notes cancellation of forecast LOR3 for NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024
On Wednesday afternoon, the AEMO notes that the Forecast LOR3 condition (for NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024) is cancelled ... but only just.
AEMO updates forecast LOR3 for NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024 (less severe)
AEMO's latest update at 10:00 (NEM time) on Wednesday 20th November 2024 in MN120702 shows the forecast severity of LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024 has dropped (but not...
AEMO publishes ‘Request for Generator Recall Information for the period from 25/11/2024 to 26/11/2024 for NSW Region’
Things are not currently* looking rosy for the NSW region early next week ... so it's no surprise to see AEMO asking (on Wednesday morning 20th Nov 2024) for generator recall information.
Updated forecast for LOR3 for Tuesday 26th November 2024 grows more severe
AEMO’s MN120671 forecast LOR3 was published at 15:33 NEM time on Tuesday 19th November 2024 – so it’s worth noting that ~7 hours later, MN120698 was published – with a deeper forecast LOR3 highlighted.
Load shedding (LOR3) projected for NSW on 26 November 2024
A LOR3 is projected for NSW on 26 November 2024.
AEMO MT PASA update on 19th November 2024 notes Low Reserve Conditions for NSW and Victoria for summer 2024-25
On Tuesday morning 19th November 2024 the AEMO MN120612 warns of forecast Low Reserve Conditions for summer 2024-25 in both NSW and Victoria.
AEMO updates forecast LOR2 for NSW for Monday 25th November 2024
At 04:05 on Tue 19th November 2024 the AEMO published MN120652 noting a forecast LOR2 condition for NSW for Monday 25th November 2024.
Today’s significant ‘Market Demand’ drop in NSW (and a smaller one in QLD) not forecast in advance
We earlier noted this ‘Significant (-786MW) drop in NSW demand, on Wednesday 13th November 2024’ … and, in response, a reader (KC) asked a question that inspired this article.
Significant (-786MW) drop in NSW demand, on Wednesday 13th November 2024
The ‘Notifications’ widget in one of our copies of ez2view triggered an alert that we’ve not seen all that often at all, flagging a 786MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in the period from 10:25...
Evening volatility in QLD and NSW (and low IRPM) on Monday evening 11th November 2024
Monday evening 11th November 2024 sees volatility return in QLD initially, and soon also in NSW.
Late afternoon and Evening run of volatility in NSW and QLD, on Thursday 7th November 2024
It was a hot and sweaty walk home from the Brisbane office late this afternoon, accompanied by the incessant buzzing of my phone … due to the run of volatility in NSW and QLD...
Price volatility starts early, on Thursday 7th November 2024
An earlier-than-expected spike in spot price in NSW on Thursday afternoon 7th November 2024.
Possibility of volatility in QLD and NSW on Thursday evening 7th November 2024
A quick look in the morning of Thursday 7th November 2024 utilizing this collage of 4 different ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets in ez2view at the 08:35 dispatch interval looking forward to this evening.
Early evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Wednesday 6th November 2024
Here’s a snapshot of NEMwatch at the 17:50 dispatch interval (NEM time) highlighting evening volatility in the QLD and NSW regions as we pass beyond sunset on this warm-for-November day.
Forecast tight supply-demand balance (i.e. LOR2) for QLD and NSW on Thursday evening 7th November 2024
Worth a short note, given the alerts from ez2view have continued to buzz in recent days, as the AEMO continues to update forecast LOR2 warnings for both QLD and NSW regions for Thursday 7th...
‘Market Demand’ in NSW drops below the prior ‘lowest ever*’ point
From the 12:05 dispatch interval, today's series of SMS alerts has started from the 12:05 dispatch interval (NEM time) announcing new ‘lowest ever*’ points for ‘Market Demand’ in NSW.