‘Too Low for Zero’ as a parable for the AER Issues Paper?
Here’s an attempt to translate the concern underlying the AER Issues Paper into ‘plain English’ via the popular song.
negative prices
Investigating the action on a trading interval boundary using the latest ez2view v7.4.5.665
Marcelle uses the latest release of ez2view (v7.4.5.665) to further investigate the impact of low dispatch prices in QLD on Saturday July 4 2020.
Saturday 4th July 2020 sees QLD spot prices crunched over long periods of the day, with solar booming
Some quick reflections on a day that saw spot prices in QLD down below $0/MWh for most of the period seeing strong daylight hours, hence strong injections from rooftop PV systems.
Spot prices plunge in QLD, and may well remain underwater for the coming week
Three main factors contributed to the spot prices in Queensland dropping underwater today for a number of hours – with some factors suggesting this might be the pattern for the coming week…
Observing Easter Saturday, a little belatedly
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, invests some time to explore a number of different aspects of Easter Saturday (11th April 2020), each noteworthy in their own right (including low demand, high percentage share renewables, negative prices and dynamic bidding)
The collapse in Queensland renewable energy investment – the canary in the coal mine
Guest author, Tristan Edis, looks particularly at the Queensland Region of the NEM, and an almost complete stop in the development of new renewables projects.
A day in the life of a large-scale Solar Farm in the NEM –a Case Study of Ross River Solar Farm on Thursday 10th October 2019
Thursday 10th October 2019 presented another day of many negative price events in the QLD region. In this Case Study (prepared for dual purposes) we look at how one particular solar farm operated through this period – Ross River Solar Farm.
More on those negative prices – how do contracts affect bidding behaviour?
Guest author Allan O’Neil provides this handy explainer on how generators’ contract positions affect their bidding decisions and can make negative spot prices pay off, at least in the short term. Very useful for those readers not actively involved in wholesale trading in helping to understand why some conspiracy theories might not match reality.
Who’s responsible for those negative prices?
Rapidly growing solar PV output has been widely tagged as the cause of low and even negative prices in Queensland. But in any market it’s the behaviour of ALL participants that determines price outcomes. Guest author Allan O’Neil takes a closer look at recent NEM bidding.
Four quick thoughts, as the run of negative prices in Queensland continues…
The run of prices at $0/MWh and below is continuing in Queensland region this week as we pass into spring (many dispatch intervals today down as low as the Market Price Floor at -$1,000/MWh). This begs a few questions…
Longer-term trends of low (and high) dispatch prices in the NEM across all regions.
Our various dashboard views of the NEM (NEMwatch, ez2view and deSide) have been showing what’s seemed like increasing numbers of zero and negative prices in the NEM recently – particularly in QLD. Coupled with this we’ve seen various commentary on social media. Hence we took a more statistical look at what’s actually been changing…
Heightened Risk an increasing feature in the NEM these days…
A full page article in the FinReview today quotes a number of people (including our work in the Generator Report Card) speaking about heightened risk in the NEM. Coincident with this, we see another instance of negative prices in South Australia (which has become increasingly common) but also something I can’t remember seeing before – an average negative price across the entire day so far!
A (Much) Deeper Dive into Friday March 1 2019
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, drills into considerable depth to understand, and clearly explain, some of what happened during a volatile period in the VIC and SA regions on Friday 1st March 2019
Price volatility in VIC and SA on Friday 1st March
Some quick notes about the volatility seen in the NEM on Friday 1st March 2019 – a hot day in Victoria and South Australia, the first day of Autumn.
A case study in Active Management at a Semi-Scheduled plant – Tuesday 24th July 2018 at Lake Bonney 2 Wind Farm
A detailed look at two specific trading periods in the day (Tuesday 24th July 2018) that saw negative dispatch prices occur at the start of trading periods – hence provided a case study for how existing Semi-Scheduled plant respond (especially in combination with transmission constraints and the Semi-Dispatch Cap).
Confirmation of yesterday’s supposition that some wind farms are blinking in the face of negative prices
A brief follow on from yesterday’s post, with the advantage of being able to review yesterday’s bids (and rebids) today.
Further thoughts on the emergence of the “Solar Correlation Penalty”
Some further thoughts on what we’ve termed a “Solar Correlation Penalty” which point-view of some specific dispatch intervals seems to suggest is occurring
How prices will be set, under the new “Demand Response Mechanism”
Some worked examples of how several forms of Demand Response (including the proposed new Demand Response Mechanism) might impact wholesale prices, and participant positions.
Spot price drops below zero in SA on a windy day with low demand
A drop in demand exacerbates low holiday demand and high wind to drop the price below zero in SA