Dan Lee looks at twenty years of capacity factors for wind farms to see if they are improving in line with recent discussion and long-term modelling assumptions.
Macarthur Wind Farm
This 20th Case Study (the other side of the weekend to the 19th Case Study) in the series investigates one dispatch interval showing extreme Aggregate Under-Performance across all Semi-Scheduled units on Monday 8th April 2019.
A quick look at this dispatch interval – as the 17th Case Study in the series looking at extreme results for Aggregate Raw Off-Target for all Semi-Scheduled DUIDs.
This 15th Case Study is longer than the earlier 14 as it deals with 4 discrete instances of extreme level of collective under-performance, and 1 instance of over-performance, all within a 4-hour timeframe on the same day. A day which appears to have had widespread weather activity affecting the output of BOTH Wind and Solar across 3 Regions. A challenging day!
This is the 12th Case Study in this series (looking at each of 98 extreme incidents). This one is simpler than the 11th Case Study!
This is the 11th Case Study in a series (looking at extreme outcomes of Aggregate Raw Off-Target for Semi-Sched units). We’ve rolled into 2018, now and (coincidence?) this one is much more complex than the first 10 from the earlier years …
This is the 10th Case Study in a series working through 98 discrete dispatch intervals of extreme Aggregate Raw Off-Target for Semi-Scheduled events. This Case Study looks at only 1 of 5 occasions of extreme collective OVER-performance.
This 9th case study in this series advances us into October 2017, where we see another example of an extreme outcome for collective under-performance. Most notably this happens across 5 Wind Farms (with one unit completely tripping).
This 7th case study in a series takes a look at 1 of 3 dispatch intervals during 2016 that saw extreme under-performance (in aggregate) across all Semi-Scheduled plant.
This 6th case study in a series takes a look at only 1 of 5 Dispatch Intervals featuring over-performance in a total of 98 that saw extreme Aggregate Raw Off-Target performance across all Semi-Scheduled plant (rare over-performance and more common under-performance).
Third case study today – and last one looking back at 2013. This one is a bit more complex than the first two.
Like was the case on 4th July 2013, the cause of this large Aggregate Raw Off-Target result (across all Semi-Scheduled Generators) was a single unit trip.
Does not take long to see why this particular dispatch interval was one of the few dispatch intervals (before 2019!) flagged in our top-down analysis of aggregate Raw Off-Target across all Semi-Scheduled units in the NEM….
This is the 3rd of 4 Case Studies to follow on from the main article (summarising results across 105,120 dispatch intervals through 2019 for ‘all Coal’ and ‘all Wind’ groupings). In this case, let’s look at the ‘worst’ case, in aggregate, where wind units under-performed compared to dispatch targets.
A quick look at Saturday 11th April (Easter Saturday) where there were major reductions in output at 4 units across Victoria – 3 coal units in the Latrobe Valley and the Macarthur Wind Farm out in western Victoria, probably related.
In order to help us (internally) map out all the different threads to explore in terms of what happened on Friday 31st January 2020 on a remarkable day in the NEM, I’ve identified a few of the key threads here over the weekend. More articles to follow as time permits….
Using the (hot off the press) Generator Statistical Digest 2019, we take a look across all 304 DUIDs to see how they performed through calendar 2019 in terms of large excesses in ‘Raw Off-Target’ in both directions. These results suggests implications for the future…
Guest author, David Leitch, in his first article here on WattClarity, walks through some of what first jumps out to him in his initial review of the Generator Statistical Digest 2019.
One example of where forecasting wind output seemed to be more difficult than we would hope it could be. Something to be further explored in the Generator Report Card.