The Victorian region is bracing for an exceptionally hot evening, with market demand projected to come close to the region’s long-standing all-time record as the temperature in Melbourne has begun its expected surge to 40°C+ temperatures.
The BOM is currently forecasting a daily maximum of 45°C in the city at around 5:00pm local time (6:00pm NEM time) this afternoon, conditions that are expected to elevate market demand as cooling load ramps up (as behind-the-meter rooftop PV generation drops off) through the late afternoon and evening peak. In the latest P30 pre-dispatch outlooks, market demand is projected to reach 10,248 MW this evening — a level that would place it within striking distance of the region’s all-time record of 10,496 MW, set 17 years ago on the 29th of January 2009.
Source: ez2view’s Forecast Convergence widget
As always, it’s worth noting that forecasting uncertainty remains elevated under extreme conditions. As observed somewhat in South Australia last night, actual demand can overshoot P30 forecasts when heat intensity and timing align unfavourably, meaning tonight’s outcome in Victoria could yet challenge expectations.
At the time of writing, no Lack of Reserve (LOR) conditions are forecast for the region, with the system currently projected to remain adequately supplied — albeit under close watch as the evening peak approaches.
Be the first to comment on "VIC expected to come within striking distance of a market demand record this evening, with 45°C temperatures projected in the late afternoon on Tuesday 27th January 2026"