As at 13:45 on Friday 13th December, the peak demand (measured as ‘Market Demand’ ) forecast for Monday is 33,718MW in the half-hour ending 18:00 (NEM time). In the last 17 years there have been only 9 months seeing higher level of demand.
We’ll explore ‘what’s changed?’ more in subsequent articles – but in this article just want to flag the Market Notice updates around 05:00 (NEM time) this morning with forecast load shedding for Monday and Tuesday next week growing more extreme …
“Surely not again so soon!?” … was my first response at reading MN121734 published at 00:42 (NEM time) on Thursday 12th December 2024, forecasting LOR3 (a.k.a. load shedding) in NSW for Monday 16th December 2024.
A short note for Tuesday morning 3rd December 2024 to highlight the emergence of forecast LOR2 conditions (and spicy prices) in NSW for later today
The outlook for load shedding in NSW on the 27th of November 2024 remains a possibility, yet recent STPASA runs indicate some movement in a positive direction is ocurring.
Given the tight supply-demand balance forecast for NSW and QLD this week, it’s worth revisiting the ‘Generator Outages’ widget in ez2view at 15:35 on Sunday 24th November 2024 to show what the current status is of generator outage plans
A very quick post to look at one of the several reasons we are seeing LOR3 and LOR2 forecasts for NSW and Queensland respectively next Wednesday (27 November). Previous posts from Paul (including this one) have looked at a range…
AEMO’s MN120879 rates special mention, given the size of largest load shedding forecast for NSW on Wednesday afternoon/evening is above 1,000MW.
The most recent ST PASA forecast now shows a sliver of forecast LOR3 (i.e. forecast Load Shedding) for the NSW region on Wed 27th Nov 2024
Things are not currently* looking rosy for the NSW region early next week … so it’s no surprise to see AEMO asking (on Wednesday morning 20th Nov 2024) for generator recall information.
AEMO’s MN120671 forecast LOR3 was published at 15:33 NEM time on Tuesday 19th November 2024 – so it’s worth noting that ~7 hours later, MN120698 was published – with a deeper forecast LOR3 highlighted.
On Tuesday morning 19th November 2024 the AEMO MN120612 warns of forecast Low Reserve Conditions for summer 2024-25 in both NSW and Victoria.
Worth a short note, given the alerts from ez2view have continued to buzz in recent days, as the AEMO continues to update forecast LOR2 warnings for both QLD and NSW regions for Thursday 7th November 2024.
After releasing the 2024 ESOO on Thursday morning 29th August 2024, in the afternoon the AEMO called for tenders for supply of RERT (Reserve Trader) in South Australia for summer 2024-25.
On Thursday 29th August 2024 the AEMO released the 2024 ESOO (Electricity Statement of Opportunities) for the NEM. Here’s where to get it, and also links to relevant news media articles that we’ve seen.
Looking forwards to some tight supply-demand balance (and potentially record-breaking demand) for mornings early next week in Tasmania.
Following a 90-minute period of low IRPM yesterday evening (Mon 17th June 2024) we take a quick look at see forecast low levels of IRPM for Tue 18th June evening (very low!) and Wed 19th June and Thu 20th June.
Following today’s publication of the AEMO has also called for ‘Interim Reliability Reserves’ for summer 2024-25.
Following numerous Market Notices overnight pertaining to Forecast LOR2 (or LOR1) in NSW for a number of coming days, here’s a summary on Saturday morning 18th May 2024 using ‘Forecast Convergence’ from ez2view.
Another ‘forecast LOR2’ notice from AEMO … this time looking at Sunday evening 19th may 2024.