Stubborn forecast LOR2 for South Australia on Wednesday 10th June 2026

Over three successive market notices since Sunday 7th June 2026, the AEMO’s been forecasting a LOR2 condition for South Australia for this Wednesday 10th June 2026.

1)  Firstly there was MN144205 at 10:50 (NEM time) on Sunday that noted:

‘[1.] From 0800 hrs 10/06/2026 to 1000 hrs 10/06/2026.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 744 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 542 MW.’

2)  Then at 18:05 there was MN144206 that updated as follows:

‘[1.] From 0830 hrs 10/06/2026 to 1700 hrs 10/06/2026.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 571 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 384 MW.’

3)  This morning (Monday 8th June 2026) at 07:39 was MN144207 as follows:

‘[1.] From 0800 hrs 10/06/2026 to 1100 hrs 10/06/2026.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 606 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 443 MW.

[2.] From 1530 hrs 10/06/2026 to 1630 hrs 10/06/2026.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 456 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 379 MW.’

With the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view as at the 07:55 dispatch interval (NEM time) on Monday 8th June 2026, we take a quick look at the UIGF for both Wind and Solar for those periods, to highlight the lower VRE capability forecast for those times:

… but, interesting to note that the lower wind conditions are only forecast to begin from Wednesday evening 10th June 2026 (towards the end of a cloudy, lower-solar day in SA).