As calendar 2025 draws to a close I thought it might also be of interest to some readers to reach into NEMreview v7 and trend the spot LGC price data* we’ve been able to feed through to our clients (over many years) thanks to Green Markets (thanks very much):
* noting that this data is also accessible to ez2view clients via the ‘Trends Engine’.
Those with long memories might recall some of the milestones in the journey, including:
1) The ‘Warburton Review’ in the teenage years of the NEM:
(a) that commenced in 2014, or perhaps beforehand
… notably I found the article ‘A few thoughts on the RET Review process’ from May 2014.
(b) was completed in August 2014 (here’s the report).
(c) and which Miles Prosser wrote about as ‘the RET Joyride’ in June 2015 after legislation had been passed to cut the target size of the (Large-Scale side of the) MRET.
2) Reports
(a) It was noted on 11th May 2018 as ‘Clean Energy Regulator confirms the RET is met’ in RenewEconomy;
(b) It was also noted on 18th May 2018 by the AEC in ‘The RET: Mission accomplished’.
3) A run-up in prices to September 2022 that I can’t recall the cause of
… perhaps one of our readers can help?
4) Then a steady decline from that point
I believe the run to late 2022 was related to speculation the Albanese/Bowen team would use LGC demand mandates as tool to deliver their decarbonisation ambitions. Once the expanded CIS was announced in Dec 2022 that story began to fall apart, and the introduction of the REGO scheme has made it apparent the government has little desire for a meaningful certificate price in future.
2018 fall had a lot to do with a CER change of position on the morality of deferred surrender. I covered it at the time here https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/traders-taxes-and-renewable-energy-certificates/