Price spike in NSW (and QLD!) at 14:55 on Friday 17th October 2025

A very quick article to record the price spike (for ENERGY) in the NSW region at 14:55 earlier today (Friday 17th October 2025) via this snapshot of ez2view, time-travelled back to the 14:55 dispatch interval (NEM time), but without the benefit of the added ‘next day public’ data set yet:

There’s 7 widgets included in this concatenation, and I’ve briefly highlighted the following:

1)  Along with the spike for ENERGY in NSW, note the elevated prices for (especially Contingency) FCAS prices in QLD;

2)  There are many different constraint equations bound, some with significant Marginal Values.

(a)  Worth calling out the following two:

i.  There’s the ‘N>>16_8_39’ constraint equation in the ‘N-AVMN_16’ constraint set

… which relates to the outage on the Avon to Marulan (16) 330kV line

ii.  And there’s also the ‘F_Q++8C_L6’ constraint equation, which is part of the ‘N-ARDM_8C’ constraint set

… which relates to the outage on the Armidale to Dumaresq  (8C) line

(b)  So some marked similarities with the earlier volatility last Friday evening 10th October 2025 (i.e. almost exactly a week ago today).

3)  As a result of these two constraint equations (and others) we see:

(a)  Constrained (counter-priced) flow on VIC1-NSW1 interconnector;

(b)  And constrained flow on the QNI interconnector

… so creating an ‘Economic Island’ for the NSW region (which is actually ‘worse’ than just that because of the effect on generators in southern NSW).

4)  So we note that the RYEPARK1 unit has just reduced its output by 212MW (i.e. FinalMW to FinalMW), noting that this unit has a relatively large LHS factor on ‘N>>16_8_39’ constraint equation and has almost certainly been constrained down in that dispatch interval.

There’s more we could call out, but that’s all for now…