An extended burst of high prices last night — combined with a shorter burst this morning — has edged the South Australian cumulative price slightly closer to the Cumulative Price Threshold (CPT). The screenshot below from AEMO’s online dashboard shows the region’s cumulative price, combined with the P30 price forecasts — the later of which currently project the Cumulative Price to exceed the CPT this evening.
Source: AEMO
It’s also worth noting that, with the new financial year beginning yesterday, the CPT has increased to $1,823,600, providing an additional $249,900 of headroom compared to the previous threshold.
Looking ahead, the cumulative price may start to retreat from Thursday evening, as last Thursday night’s extended run of volatility will come off the cumulative total — it contributed to the sharp upswing seen towards the left-hand side of the chart above.
The screenshot below shows forecast convergence for SA spot prices over the P30 time horizon. The colour scale has been customised so that all prices (actual and forecast) below $1,000/MWh are displayed in dark blue.
The range of price forecasts in SA until 4am tomorrow, as at 11:30am NEM time this morning.
Columns represent point in time, rows represent the recency of the forecast. P30 forecasts are made each half-hour.
Source: ez2view’s Forecast Convergence widget
Last week, I posted a couple of short updates (here and here) outlining some of the overarching dynamics at play in South Australia this week. At that point, a forecast LOR3 condition was appearing for this evening — but those projections have since been downgraded, with the P30 now showing LOR1 conditions. The chart below shows the range of recent forecast Lack of Reserve (LOR) conditions expected in SA this afternoon and evening.
The range of recent forecast LOR conditions for SA this afternoon/evening, as at 11:30am NEM time this morning.
Source: ez2view’s Forecast Convergence widget
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