Remember that on Wednesday 11th June 2025 we wrote that ‘AEMO notes increased forecast for Unserved Energy (USE) in QLD due to network outages scheduled between Tue 17th to Fri 20th June 2025’ from the MT PASA time horizon.
Well…
- It’s already been a busy morning …
- But we’re now in the ST PASA window looking forwards to next Tuesday 17th June 2025 and worth noting that at 08:59 on Friday 13th June 2025 the AEMO published MN127524 relating to in Queensland as follows:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 13/06/2025 08:59:08
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Notice ID : 127524
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 13/06/2025
External Reference : STPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 17/06/2025
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following periods:
1. From 1100 hrs to 1130 hrs 17/06/2025.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 220 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 178 MW.
2. From 1400 hrs to 1430 hrs 17/06/2025.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 270 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 236 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
AEMO Operations
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END OF REPORT
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Note, in particular, that these are middle-of-the day periods
… which is quite unusual, in terms of forecast LOR2 in these days of booming solar!
So the first port of call is this collage of 4 x ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets from ez2view at 09:25 all focused on different data points in QLD as follows:
Remember that this widget allows one to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to ‘see that other dimension of time’.
Top-to-bottom, for the vertical stripe highlighted, we can see:
1) The emergence of of the forecast LOR2 for Queensland for next Tuesday … for the middle of the day!
2) We can see the aggregate Available Generation forecast in QLD dropping a little through the day … now it’s possible (even likely) that there may also be changes with respect to firming capacity, but we can see immediately below that
3) For this day the AEMO is forecasting poor aggregate Large Solar UIGF across Queensland (i.e. widespread cloud cover)
4) For this day, the AEMO is also forecasting poor aggregate Wind UIGF across Queensland
5) Not shown here (but reminding readers of AEMO comments in that market notice) … network limitations could also be a factor.
PS1 cancelled at 14:00 on Friday 13th June 2025
Briefly noting MN127534 published at 15:11 as follows:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 13/06/2025 15:11:22
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Notice ID : 127534
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 13/06/2025
External Reference : STPASA – Cancellation of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 17/06/2025
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
The Forecast LOR2 condition in the QLD region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 127524 is cancelled at 1400 hrs 13/06/2025.
No LOR2 condition is currently forecast in the STPASA period.
AEMO Operations
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END OF REPORT
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