On Friday’s we posted (with respect to AEMO’s ST PASA forecasts) how ‘Forecasts ‘hotting up’, for NEMwide demand on Monday 3rd February 2025’. Since that time:
1) AEMO’s continued to update their forecasts based on updated weather forecasts from their weather forecast providers; and
2) So we have continued to keep a eye on them;
3) Whilst at the same time fielding questions about how extreme the demand levels might be.
4) As a result of which we have posted:
(a) we first posted this ‘trend of daily peak NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’– from 1st January 2008 to 31st January 2025’.
(b) and now also ‘A trend of daily peak Victoria ‘Market Demand’– from 1st January 2008 to 1st February 2025’.
So with those two articles as background, here’s an updated snapshot of the AEMO’s latest ST PASA forecasts from 12:00 (NEM time) on Sunday 2nd February 2025, particularly looking forwards to Monday 3rd February 2025 and Tuesday 4th February 2025:
This snapshot comes from the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view at the 12:55 dispatch (NEM time). Remember:
1) To click on the image for a larger-resolution view; and
2) That this widget allows one to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to ‘see that other dimension of time’.
With the data visualized above, let’s sum up:
| Date | About NEM-wide Demand,
… measured as ‘Market Demand’ |
About Victorian Demand, … measured as ‘Market Demand’ |
|---|---|---|
Sunday 2nd February 2025 (i.e. today) |
There’s no colour other than dark blue shown in the vertical stripes for peak demand time this evening. …. meaning the current forecasts are that the demand won’t peak above 30,000MW. |
There’s some pale blue shown in the vertical stripes for peak demand time this evening. …. meaning the current forecasts are that the demand will peak around ~8,500MW this evening.
|
|
Monday 3rd February 2025 |
Current forecasts show the demand might be as high as 33,350MW. Referring back to this long-range trend for NEM-wide peak demand , we see that:
|
Current forecasts show the demand might be as high as 9,849MW. Referring back to this long-range trend for Victorian peak demand, we see that:
|
|
Tuesday 4th February 2025 |
Somewhat lower than forecasts for the prior day now, we still see some fairly consistent colour up that vertical), representing a demand forecast of ~32,500MW. |
In contrast to earlier forecasts from the AEMO, we can see (via the deepening blues up that vertical) that the forecast for Victorian peak demand on Tuesday are softening. |
So let’s wait to see what unfolds….
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