Yesterday afternoon we wrote a how (today) ‘Monday 3rd February could be a big day, in terms of ‘Market Demand’ across the NEM (and in Victoria)’.
This morning (in this article) I’ve already written about how:
In VIC, we see that overnight the AEMO has re-introduced a forecast LOR1 condition for this evening Monday 3rd February 2025;
(a) for just one forecast run, for one half-hour period, there was a forecast LOR2.
(b) so …
i. whilst it could be a big day in terms of ‘Market Demand’;
ii. and, because it’s hot, most components of the electricity system/grid will experience high temperature stress;
iii. and we might see some price action as a result,
iv. it seems quite unlikely there will be ‘blackouts’.
So I thought I’d post this update with the 09:00 dispatch interval with this snapshot from ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view noting that, in the past ~18 hours AEMO’s more recent forecasts have seen forecast demand in VIC and NEM-wide not as spicy as had been suggested in earlier forecasts:
Remember that:
1) You can click on an image to open in larger view; and
2) The design of this widget (in Grid view) allows one to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to ‘see that other dimension of time’.
So we can see …
1) in the top widget (in terms of NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ the forecast has dropped for a peak now to be ‘only’ 32,812MW in the half-hour ending 18:30 NEM time
… which we can see in this long-range historical context would still be quite high
2) in the bottom widget (in terms of Victoria ‘Market Demand’ the forecast has dropped for a peak now to be ‘only’ 9,493MW in the half-hour ending 18:30 NEM time
… which we can see in this long-range historical context would still be quite high
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