AEMO’s demand forecasts show chance of a bigger demand day declining – for Monday 3rd February 2025

Yesterday afternoon we wrote a how (today) ‘Monday 3rd February could be a big day, in terms of ‘Market Demand’ across the NEM (and in Victoria)’.

This morning (in this article) I’ve already written about how:

 

In VIC, we see that overnight the AEMO has re-introduced a forecast LOR1 condition for this evening Monday 3rd February 2025;

(a)  for just one forecast run, for one half-hour period, there was a forecast LOR2.

(b)  so …

i.  whilst it could be a big day in terms of ‘Market Demand’;

ii.  and, because it’s hot, most components of the electricity system/grid will experience high temperature stress;

iii.  and we might see some price action as a result,

iv. it seems quite unlikely there will be ‘blackouts’.

 

So I thought I’d post this update with the 09:00 dispatch interval with this snapshot from ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view noting that, in the past ~18 hours AEMO’s more recent forecasts have seen forecast demand in VIC and NEM-wide not as spicy as had been suggested in earlier forecasts:

2025-02-03-at-09-00-ez2view-ForecastConvergence-Demand

Remember that:

1)  You can click on an image to open in larger view; and

2)  The design of this widget (in Grid view) allows one to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to ‘see that other dimension of time’.

 

So we can see …

1)  in the top widget (in terms of NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ the forecast has dropped for a peak now to be ‘only’ 32,812MW in the half-hour ending 18:30 NEM time

… which we can see in this long-range historical context would still be quite high

2)  in the bottom widget (in terms of Victoria ‘Market Demand’ the forecast has dropped for a peak now to be ‘only’ 9,493MW in the half-hour ending 18:30 NEM time

… which we can see in this long-range historical context would still be quite high

 

 

About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

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