There’s been an increasing amount of discussion about ‘Underlying Demand’ in various places:
1) Such as…
(a) In the AEMO QED 2024 Q4, released this morning
(b) And also in other media articles.
2) That’s important, because it’s ‘Underlying Demand’ that is a better ‘measure*’ of what energy users are actually consuming, no matter the supply source.
* albeit that ‘measure’ is a bit of an overstatement given the ongoing opacity of Small Solar and the outright invisibility of other supply sources (such as Medium Solar)
But it’s also worth keeping an eye on measures such as ‘Grid Demand’ (which is about what levers AEMO can easily pull to keep the lights on) and also ‘Market Demand’ (which is more directly about who’s paid what for indirectly delivering services such as ‘Keeping the Lights on Services’ whilst contributing to the Energy Market).
So it’s worth including this snapshot of the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view at the 08:10 dispatch interval (NEM time) on Thursday 30th January 2025 looking out the week ahead in AEMO’s ST PASA forecasts:
Note that:
1) Both widgets are focused on NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ over the ST PASA timeframe, with the bottom one (grid) focused on the upper demand levels to accentuate three particular days
2) Three days over this ~14 day time horizon stand out:
(a) We did not publish any articles about Monday 27th January 2025 as it went past, but notable that the (long-weekend boosted) public holiday:
i. saw a level of ‘Market Demand’ that reached 31,528MW at 17:25 (NEM time), off the back of a very hot day in Victoria driving demand there higher;
ii. this level of demand was higher than** the AEMO’s earlier forecast
** we can clearly see this via the ability to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to ‘see that other dimension of time’
iii. not shown here, but we use the ‘Trends Engine’ in ez2view to quickly see that that level was the highest since Monday 16th December 2024 (on that day the peak was 32,674MW)
(b) Next Monday 3rd February 2025 is forecast to approach 32,000MW.
(c) Earlier forecasts for Tuesday 4th February 2025 was that it might reach almost 32,500MW (i.e. approaching the level of Monday 16th December 2024) but those forecasts have cooled somewhat over the past ~12 hours, though still above 32,000MW.
That’s all for now …
PS1 AEMO publishes ‘ NEM Local Temperature Alerts for SA, TAS, VIC from 30 Jan 2025 to 03 Feb 2025’
Very related to the above, at 11:11 on Thursday 30th January, the AEMO published MN123919 as follows:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 30/01/2025 11:11:45
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Notice ID : 123919
Notice Type ID : GENERAL NOTICE
Notice Type Description : Subjects not covered in specific notices
Issue Date : 30/01/2025
External Reference : NEM Local Temperature Alerts for SA, TAS, VIC from 30 Jan 2025 to 03 Feb 2025
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO’s weather service provider has issued forecast temperatures equal to or greater than the NEM Local Temperature Alert Levels for listed weather stations below.
SA
Adelaide West Terrace (39+ Deg C): 2nd Feb, 3rd Feb
Clare High School (39+ Deg C): 2nd Feb, 3rd Feb
Mt Gambier Ap (39+ Deg C): 2nd Feb, 3rd Feb
Port Augusta Ap (39+ Deg C): 1st Feb, 2nd Feb, 3rd Feb
TAS
Launceston Ti Tree Bend (33+ Deg C): 2nd Feb, 3rd Feb
VIC
Melbourne Olympic Park (39+ Deg C): 3rd Feb
Mildura Ap (39+ Deg C): 1st Feb, 2nd Feb, 3rd Feb
Mortlake (39+ Deg C): 3rd Feb
The NEM Local Temperature Alert Levels are:
Launceston Ti Tree Bend: 33 Deg C, Dalby Airport: 37 Deg C, for all other selected weather stations: 39 Deg C.
AEMO requests Market Participants to:
1. review the weather forecast in the local area where their generating units / MNSP converter stations are located and,
2. if required, update the available capacity in their dispatch offers or availability submissions consistent with the forecast temperatures.
Further information is available at:
AEMO Operations Planning
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END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-‘
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