Earlier this morning, Paul wrote about a long run of high prices forecast in NSW this afternoon, coinciding with the ‘N-CTMN_4_WG_CLOSE’ constraint set being invoked – starting today and scheduled to end on the 14th of December.
From the 11:40 dispatch interval this morning, we saw a run of four intervals where the NSW price spiked above $10,000/MWh as seen in the screenshot below.
The NSW price spiked up to near the market cap for four intervals between 11:40 and 11:55 this morning (NEM time).
Source: ez2view’s Trading Prices Widget
Prices in NSW have since pulled back, with P5 forecasted prices for the next hour at more typical levels. A closer inspection of several of our ez2view widgets shows a bit more detail into what was happening within the region at the time.
A view of the NSW schematic for the 11:40 dispatch interval.
Source: ez2view’s NSW Schematic widget
Our new Congestion Map prototype shows a very distinct congestion divide in NSW, as at the 11:40 dispatch interval
Source: ez2view’s Congestion Map Prototype widget
The NEM Map widget – shown here for the 11:40 dispatch interval – shows interconnector flows and prices.
Source: ez2view’s NEM Map widget
As always, there are many things happening at once… but worth noting a few dynamics that catch our attention at first glance:
- Very negative local price adjustments for wind farms around the Goulburn area (i.e. with connection points on or near the Collector to Marulan 330kV line)
- QNI and VNI flowing at southerly limits
- A counter-price flow from NSW to VIC
- Not shown in screenshots, but “NRM_NSW1_VIC1” (a negative residue management constraint), then clamped at the 11:50 dispatch interval
- Tumut 3 switched on from 0MW to 763MW at the 11:35 dispatch interval
At the time of writing (12:45pm NEM time), the current P30 price forecasts are showing the NSW up near $17,500/MWh between 16:00 and 20:00 today, with a forecast LOR1 condition currently appearing for the period between 14:00 and 16:00.
We will be keeping an eye on how the situation evolves.
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