Third article already this morning looking ahead to what’s forecast for NSW on Monday 16th December 2024 with Market Notice 121760 published at 09:04 NEM time this morning highlighting a larger amount of load shedding potentially required on Monday in NSW than was flagged ~9 hours ago:
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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 12/12/2024 09:04:31
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Notice ID : 121760
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 12/12/2024
External Reference : STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the NSW Region on 16/12/2024
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
The Forecast LOR3 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 121734 has been updated at 0800 hrs 12/12/2024 to the following:
From 1500 hrs to 1930 hrs 16/12/2024.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 733 MW at 1730 hrs.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
AEMO Operations
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END OF REPORT
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Coupled with this alert, the AEMO also published a couple other notices that are worth flagging here ….
Concerns in NSW
At 09:05 the AEMO published MN121762 about forecast LOR2 in NSW.
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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 12/12/2024 09:05:57
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Notice ID : 121762
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 12/12/2024
External Reference : STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW Region on 16/12/2024
————————
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
The Forecast LOR2 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 121735 has been updated at 0800 hrs 12/12/2024 to the following:
1. From 1400 hrs to 1500 hrs 16/12/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 700 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 239 MW.
2. From 1930 hrs to 2100 hrs 16/12/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1000 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 136 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
AEMO Operations
————————
END OF REPORT
————————’
Now hopefully it’s obvious that (if there is a forecast LOR3 in a region for a day) there also will be a forecast LOR2, mathematically.
What’s of particular interest here is just the lengthy time-span of the forecast LOR2 or LOR3 … i.e. 14:00 to 21:00.
So it’s not really a surprise that the AEMO published MN121759 relating to Generator Recall Information at 09:09 (NEM time) pertaining to NSW:
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MARKET NOTICE
————————
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 12/12/2024 09:09:42
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Notice ID : 121759
Notice Type ID : RECALL GEN CAPACITY
Notice Type Description : Recall Gen Capacity
Issue Date : 12/12/2024
External Reference : Request for Generator Recall Information for the period 16/12/2024 and 17/12/2024 for Region NSW
————————
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Refer to AEMO Electricity Market Notice no. 121760, 121762, and 121765.
Please provide Generator Recall Information for the period from 16/12/2024 to 17/12/2024, by 1200 hrs on 13/12/2024 via the Generator Recall communication system, in accordance with clause 4.8.5A of the National Electricity Rules.
SO_OP_3719 Procedure for Submitting Generator Outage Recall Information is available at:
Procedure on how to use Generator Recall in the EMMS Markets Portal is available at
http://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/IT-Systems-and-Change/2018/Guide-to-Generator-Recall-Plans.pdf
AEMO Operations
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END OF REPORT
————————’
Concerns in VIC
At 09:12 the AEMO published MN121767 about forecast LOR2 in Victoria, as well:
‘————————
MARKET NOTICE
————————
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 12/12/2024 09:12:30
————————
Notice ID : 121767
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 12/12/2024
External Reference : STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the VIC Region on 16/12/2024
————————
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
The Forecast LOR2 condition in the VIC region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 121736 has been updated at 0800 hrs 12/12/2024 to the following:
1. From 1500 hrs to 1600 hrs 16/12/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 560 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 287 MW.
2. From 1630 hrs to 1800 hrs 16/12/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 578 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 317 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
AEMO Operations
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END OF REPORT
————————’
At 09:07 the AEMO published similar for Victoria:
‘————————
MARKET NOTICE
————————
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 12/12/2024 09:07:27
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Notice ID : 121757
Notice Type ID : RECALL GEN CAPACITY
Notice Type Description : Recall Gen Capacity
Issue Date : 12/12/2024
External Reference : Request for Generator Recall Information for the period 16/12/2024 for Region VIC
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Refer to AEMO Electricity Market Notice no. 121767.
Please provide Generator Recall Information for the period 16/12/2024, by 1200 hrs on 13/12/2024 via the Generator Recall communication system, in accordance with clause 4.8.5A of the National Electricity Rules.
SO_OP_3719 Procedure for Submitting Generator Outage Recall Information is available at:
Procedure on how to use Generator Recall in the EMMS Markets Portal is available at
http://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/IT-Systems-and-Change/2018/Guide-to-Generator-Recall-Plans.pdf
AEMO Operations
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END OF REPORT
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