Updated forecast LOR3 (a.k.a. load shedding) in NSW for Monday 16th December 2024 grows wider and deeper … and some concern in VIC

At 09:05 the AEMO published MN121762 about forecast LOR2 in NSW.

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     12/12/2024     09:05:57

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Notice ID               :         121762
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         12/12/2024
External Reference      :         STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW Region on 16/12/2024

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

The Forecast LOR2 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 121735 has been updated at 0800 hrs 12/12/2024 to the following:

1. From 1400 hrs to 1500 hrs 16/12/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 700 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 239 MW.

2. From 1930 hrs to 2100 hrs 16/12/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1000 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 136 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

AEMO Operations

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END OF REPORT
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Now hopefully it’s obvious that (if there is a forecast LOR3 in a region for a day) there also will be a forecast LOR2, mathematically.

What’s of particular interest here is just the lengthy time-span of the forecast LOR2 or LOR3 … i.e. 14:00 to 21:00.

At 09:12 the AEMO published MN121767 about forecast LOR2 in Victoria, as well:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     12/12/2024     09:12:30

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Notice ID               :         121767
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         12/12/2024
External Reference      :         STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the VIC Region on 16/12/2024

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

The Forecast LOR2 condition in the VIC region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 121736 has been updated at 0800 hrs 12/12/2024 to the following:

1. From 1500 hrs to 1600 hrs 16/12/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 560 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 287 MW.

2. From 1630 hrs to 1800 hrs 16/12/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 578 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 317 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

AEMO Operations

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END OF REPORT
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So it’s not really a surprise that the AEMO published MN121759 relating to Generator Recall Information at 09:09 (NEM time) pertaining to NSW:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     12/12/2024     09:09:42

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Notice ID               :         121759
Notice Type ID          :         RECALL GEN CAPACITY
Notice Type Description :         Recall Gen Capacity
Issue Date              :         12/12/2024
External Reference      :         Request for Generator Recall Information for the period 16/12/2024 and 17/12/2024 for Region NSW

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Refer to AEMO Electricity Market Notice no. 121760, 121762, and 121765.

Please provide Generator Recall Information for the period from 16/12/2024 to 17/12/2024, by 1200 hrs on 13/12/2024 via the Generator Recall communication system, in accordance with  clause 4.8.5A of the National Electricity Rules.

SO_OP_3719 Procedure for Submitting Generator Outage Recall Information is available at:

https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/security_and_reliability/power_system_ops/procedures/so_op_3719-procedure-for-submitting-recall-information-scheduled-generator-outages.pdf

Procedure on how to use Generator Recall in the EMMS Markets Portal is available at
http://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/IT-Systems-and-Change/2018/Guide-to-Generator-Recall-Plans.pdf

AEMO Operations

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END OF REPORT
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At 09:07 the AEMO published similar for Victoria:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     12/12/2024     09:07:27

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Notice ID               :         121757
Notice Type ID          :         RECALL GEN CAPACITY
Notice Type Description :         Recall Gen Capacity
Issue Date              :         12/12/2024
External Reference      :         Request for Generator Recall Information for the period 16/12/2024 for Region VIC

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Refer to AEMO Electricity Market Notice no. 121767.

Please provide Generator Recall Information for the period 16/12/2024, by 1200 hrs on 13/12/2024 via the Generator Recall communication system, in accordance with  clause 4.8.5A of the National Electricity Rules.

SO_OP_3719 Procedure for Submitting Generator Outage Recall Information is available at:

https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/security_and_reliability/power_system_ops/procedures/so_op_3719-procedure-for-submitting-recall-information-scheduled-generator-outages.pdf

Procedure on how to use Generator Recall in the EMMS Markets Portal is available at
http://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/IT-Systems-and-Change/2018/Guide-to-Generator-Recall-Plans.pdf

AEMO Operations

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END OF REPORT
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