“Surely not again so soon!?” … was my first response at reading MN121734 published at 00:42 (NEM time) on Thursday 12th December 2024, looking forward to Monday 16th December 2024 (the day of forecast LOR3 … i.e. Load Shedding):
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 12/12/2024 00:42:05
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Notice ID : 121734
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 12/12/2024
External Reference : STPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the NSW Region on 16/12/2024
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR3 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the NSW region for the following periods:
[1.] From 1530 hrs 16/12/2024 to 1600 hrs 16/12/2024.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 10 MW at 1530 hrs.
[2.] From 1700 hrs 16/12/2024 to 1830 hrs 16/12/2024.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 106 MW at 1730 hrs.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
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END OF REPORT
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… and I suspect I will be far from the only one who will be expressing the same sort of sentiment. The ‘so soon’ part of the response is triggered by what happened all-too-recently on Wednesday 27th November 2024, which:
1) had large forecast LOR3 … and, whilst that was not required at the end of the day;
2) there was a deep actual LOR2; and
3) the AEMO did determine they required ‘Reserve Trader’
4) and price were ballistic, of course.
… all signs pointing to the concern that the energy transition is not going as swimmingly as we would like.
So, in a few articles to follow, we will be unpicking what’s forecast.
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