Friday morning forecasts for load shedding (i.e. LOR3) in NSW on Monday 16th and Tuesday 17th December grow more extreme

We’ll explore ‘what’s changed?’ more in subsequent articles – but in this article just want to flag the Market Notice updates around 05:00 (NEM time) this morning with forecast load shedding for Monday and Tuesday next week growing more extreme …

Regarding Monday 16th December 2024

At 05:02 we saw MN121817 as follows:

——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 13/12/2024 05:02:20

——————————————————————-

Notice ID : 121817
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 13/12/2024
External Reference : STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the NSW Region on 16/12/2024

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR3 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the NSW region for the following periods:

[1.] From 1600 hrs 16/12/2024 to 1900 hrs 16/12/2024.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 573 MW at 1730 hrs.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-

Regarding Tuesday 17th December 2024

At 04:57 we saw MN121818 as follows:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 13/12/2024 04:57:28

——————————————————————-

Notice ID : 121818
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 13/12/2024
External Reference : STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the NSW Region on 17/12/2024

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR3 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the NSW region for the following periods:

[1.] From 1500 hrs 17/12/2024 to 1900 hrs 17/12/2024.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 376 MW at 1630 hrs.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-‘