The summer readiness briefing for the NEM 2024-25 summer was presented by AEMO EGM Operations, Michael Gatt and Head Communications Meteorologist · Weatherzone Ashleigh Madden.
The briefing branched into two main themes:
- Weather and Climate (Weatherzone),
- Gas and Electricity (AEMO).
The recording and slides will be circulated to attendees by AEMO in due course.
There was more content in the presentations, so readers will do well to access the full slide deck (and recording) when it becomes available. Until then, here are some highlights we captured.
In the gas and electricity segment AEMO addressed a comprehensive set of elements that contribute to its readiness plans
Notable aspects boxed in red.
The network
A host of maintenance or commissioning works in Victoria are flagged as contributing to a greater number of high impact outages over summer in the VIC region.
Generation Availability
Several large generating units are taking planned outages spanning the November and December period. The return to service dates will be closely monitored as delays could compromise availability in January.
Extreme demand
There is an increased likelihood of demand records (both minimum and maximum). The record QLD peak demand of last summer (on 22nd January 2024) was noted as an example that peak demand could climb higher this summer.
In addressing the supply reliability shortfalls identified for this summer in the recent ESOO, AEMO noted that it will procure interim reliability reserves (pay for availability) to firm up the shortfalls in SA and NSW, and short notice RERT will be used to cover the 10MW gap in VIC.
Gas Powered Generation (GPG)
GPG will be crucial in providing peak generation capacity to the NEM this summer, but how much and when is linked to uncertainties in supply from VRE, demand levels and the utilisation of new large-scale batteries.
There is reduced volume of gas production due to facility maintenance (compared to last year) meaning that storage refilling will take longer. I also interpreted related points as there being potential for higher gas prices as under peak GPG utilisation periods there could be a possible need to draw down upon gas storage levels, to supplement that from production facilities.
On the weather and climate outlook for the summer, highlights include
El Nino-Southern Oscillation
Warm sea surface temperatures and La Nina-like conditions (index officially neutral, but on the low side).
- This increases the likelihood of heavy rainfall, and thunderstorms.
- Increased number of tropical cyclones in QLD (3.8 vs 3 typically per season).
We know from experience these events can bring flooding and trees down over powerlines.
Temperatures
Looking to December and beyond, temperatures across the NEM are anticipated to be generally about average or cooler with a slightly lower numbers of days in extreme heat. This is associated with the southern annular mode projected to be more-often positive in the summer, leading to high pressure systems sitting further north. This would be bringing cooler south-easterly winds to southern states.
It was also noted that these climate conditions have the potential to lead to heatwaves if it sits in the right location for extended periods. And looking at the maximum temperature charts below, parts of SA (being coloured light red) might expect warmer maxima than typical.
Notably, the number of days at or over 35°C at Ipswich, QLD, is anticipated to be more than typical – 20 days, relative to an average of 17.8.
Bushfire risk above average in some Australian locations
Based on the analysis for spring 2024, key regions in the NEM are western VIC and southeast SA, and inland QLD.
The recording and slides will be circulated to attendees by AEMO in due course.
Update (25 November) – Presentations available
AEMO report the following:
“The presentation slides from the AEMO and Weatherzone (DTN) presentations, along with the meeting recording, are now available on AEMO’s website: AEMO | Summer operations 2024-25“.
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